Here is Matt Haynes NFL AFC Preview 2024 -25 along with his seasons selections
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos – The Broncos were awful in 2022, not much better last year and have a roster that is bottom five in the league this coming season. They drafted Oregon QB Bo Nix in the first round and even though his performances in the pre-season have been impressive their passing attack looks horrible and they traded away some of their better defenders. Despite Denver facing a league average schedule this season Vegas have set their win total at 5.5 and that seems about right to me. This is a bottom feeder team that could end up with the number 1 pick in next year’s draft.
Kansas City Chiefs – The reigning Superbowl champions have seen some significant losses to their roster, most notably on defence, so you have to ask will it be as good as last season, where they arguably carried a spluttering offence to the play-offs. The offence should improve with two new receivers and as long as Andy Reid is coaching and Patrick Mahomes is throwing the ball the Chiefs will be one of the top contenders as you can’t argue with their record, making the AFC Championship in six straight seasons and the Super Bowl in four of the last five years.
The Chiefs are slated to face one of the 10 easiest schedules and should once again hit 11 wins minimum.
Las Vegas Raiders – In his first full season as head coach, Antonio Pierce will no doubt be working to improve the offensive output, as defensive performance in the second half of last season was fantastic, the Raiders defence closed out the season as the NFL’s 2nd best defence. Added to that defence is stud defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who generated 10 sacks and 58 pressures last season for the Dolphins. He will complement Raiders star defensive end Max Crosby very nicely. The big question is at QB but whoever wins that job has some nice weapons to throw to in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and rookie Brock Bowers. This team will be competitive and is facing a similar middle of the road schedule to last season, so I’m backing OVER 6.5 WINS
Los Angeles Chargers – Last season was a disaster for the LA Chargers, as QB Justin Herbert got injured in week 14 leading to a 5-12 finish, WR Quentin Johnston was a total bust, RB Austin Ekeler ran like he was stuck in mud and WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury in week 3. New Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has been hired to turn this around and immediately decimated the roster suggesting a one-year transition period as they have some very serious weak spots, including the receivers, interior offensive line & defensive front. Added to this is QB Herbert being diagnosed with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot, leaving him in a boot.
Schedule wise the Chargers flip from the 6th toughest last season to the 3rd easiest this season and while I think Harbaugh will turn things around, it won’t be this season and I’m backing UNDER 8.5 wins for the men from Los Angeles.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore were dominant last season finishing with the most wins and the largest point differential in the NFL, they did this facing the 5th hardest schedule but they suffered a tough loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and must see last season as a blown opportunity as they were built to win last year’s Superbowl. All this means they have lost a number of players on both sides of the ball to free agency over the off-season. Defensively they have a lot of depth on their roster and it looks like they can replace the losses with the next man up but on offence they may suffer a little more as the offensive line has been decimated and the replacements haven’t played very much professional football so it’s difficult to tell what level they will play at. RB Henry was signed from the Titans and he is an upgrade but how he’ll perform behind a potentially dodgy line remains to be seen.
Schedule wise they once again face a difficult schedule, four of the Ravens first five opponents made the playoffs last year and with the AFC North looking extremely competitive Baltimore may not even win their division this season and UNDER 10.5 wins looks tempting.
Cincinnati Bengals – Quarterback Joe Burrow staying injury free and wholesale defensive improvement are the crucial factors needed for the Bengals to succeed this season. They lost five veteran starters in the offseason and this does seem to have downgraded the roster from a pure talent viewpoint. Their defence was amongst the worse last season and I expect it to be the same this year, especially the secondary. On offense they have a top class receiving group and a very good quarterback, if the blockers can keep Burrows safe then the Bengals should be in contention for their division or at the very least a wild-card spot as they have by far the easiest schedule in the NFL this season so you can understand Vegas quoting over 10.5 wins, personally I wont be knocking down doors to back the over as for me there are still too many questions to be answered on defence.
Cleveland Browns – The Browns defence carried the team to the play-offs last season despite them facing a top 5 difficulty ranked schedule and losing their QB Deshawn Watson to injury, they played some old school smash you in the mouth football that was very effective. They have retained a lot of their starters, added some nice pieces in free agency and improved their coaching roster so it looks to me like a potential Superbowl contending team with only the one question mark.
Can the QB Watson regain his form of old or is he bust?? Well, he’s only played 12 games in two seasons and has only ran or passed for 16 touchdowns in that time period. He’s coming off a shoulder injury and hasn’t played in any of the pre-season games, so predicting how he is going to play in a match situation is pure speculation. If he returns even half competent then this team can go on a deep run in the play-offs, if not then a wild card exit awaits. All in all, I think Cleveland are a solid bet to make the play-offs at 2.45.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers shouldn’t be a competitive team this year but hall of fame bound head coach Mike Tomlin might have other ideas as his teams just keep on finding ways to win against all the odds. Make no mistake this is not a good organisation, they have been slated by the players association for poor nutrition, poor treatment of family members and poor travel arrangements. The players broke the locker-room code of silence multiple times last season to complain.
Once again, they are slated to face a tough schedule as they got it tough last year schedule wise but they still managed to make the play-offs. This year I think their luck runs out as their offence lacks skill players and their defence is currently a re-build project.
I won’t be betting against Tomlin though as he could work his voodoo once more and motivate the team to a 9-8 finish and continue his remarkable 17-year run of never having had a losing record as the Pittsburgh head coach.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans – There’s a lot to like about the Texans this season, they were very active in the off-season acquiring some nice pieces to complement the exceptional younger talent and they do look to be a top 5 roster on paper. QB Stroud was rookie of the year in 2023 and with natural progression the sky is the limit for him. He will throw from behind an improved offensive line to better weapons. Defensively the pass rush and run defence looks sound and if the secondary can step up then they will boast a top 10 defence at the very worst.
I expect the Texans to win their division with some ease but they are projected to face a much tougher schedule than last season, so I’m not getting carried away with the current hype behind this team, though I do fancy them to win 11 or 12 games and will be backing OVER 10.5 wins @ 2.25
Indianapolis Colts – The Colts nearly made the playoffs last season but lost in the final regular season game to the Texans. They bring back the same roster as last year where in my opinion they were an average team even when faced with the 10th easiest schedule and once again they are projected to face one of the top 10 easiest schedules. So maybe we see another 9-8 season, or maybe QB Richardson who looked like a stud until injury knocked him out for the year after just 6 games of his rookie season, where he completed 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards and 3 touchdowns and rushed for 136 yards and 4 touchdowns. If he fulfils the massive hype surrounding him then it could propel the Colts into challenging the Texans for the division.
All things considered we have to leave the Colts alone as a betting proposition as their floor and ceiling are too far apart to predict with any confidence but it wouldn’t surprise me of they are in contention for a wild card spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars – After QB Lawrence got injured in Week 13 the Jaguars collapsed losing 4 of their last 5 games and missed the play-offs. This was a disappointing end to their 2023 season as there were high hopes for a potential Superbowl run. This season in Jacksonville we seem to have a top-class quarterback and a top-class head coach with lots of other inconsistent pieces around them. They faced a top ten schedule in terms of difficulty last season and it’s the same this year, their first month looks brutal with trips to Miami and Buffalo between two home games against the Browns & the Texans. All in all, I think they could be a legitimate play-off team if things fall into place.
Their floor and ceiling are similar to the Colts in that its quite far apart and anything could happen really so for betting purposes they are best left alone.
Tennessee Titans – There has been a lot of change on this team coaching and player wise and they look to be starting a re-build after years of challenging for the divisional title. This season will be all about finding out what they have in 2nd year QB Will Levis, who looks to have immense potential but also a very low floor. He was very inconsistent in his rookie year but the Titans have invested in a lot of veteran free agents to at least give him a chance to prove his worth. Schedule wise they have a tough start to the campaign, their first seven opponents are the Bears, Jets, Packers, Dolphins, Colts, Bills, and Lions, they are underdogs in all those matches. I think Vegas has this right and 6 or 7 wins look likely.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills – Another year and another play-off failure against the Chiefs, so the question has to be whether they can this year sustain another championship challenge with an aging roster. As long as Josh Allen stays healthy then they will make the play-offs once more as he is the engine behind this offence. Defensively they have lost their entire secondary from 2023 due to having to absorb millions in dead cap space. But they do have a deep roster and this should be a top ten defence. Their schedule is brutal but the same is true for two of their divisional rivals so 10 or 11 wins seems likely as does another divisional title.
Miami Dolphins – Last season Miami went 11-6 but when you break their win loss record down it was 1-5 against Playoff teams and 10-1 against everyone else. They are the proverbial flat track bullies. Checking this year’s schedule, we see them facing quarterbacks of the calibre of Aaron Rodgers (twice), Josh Allen (twice), Matt Stafford, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud & Brock Purdy. This is a much tougher assignment than last season. Roster wise they have kept all the pieces on offence together which can only be a good thing, defensively they could have up to seven new starters so they will take time to gel. Overall if they stay healthy the Dolphins should be fighting for a wildcard spot.
New England Patriots – Bill Belichicks last season coaching the Patriots was a disaster. His QB was constantly throwing it short and turning the ball over and to top it all off they were the most injured team in the NFL. Wholesale change has happened coaching wise but it will take time to rebuild the roster and as they say you can’t polish a turd and this offence will still stink. It has no offensive line and is weak at receiver. Defensively we will find out if it was Belichick magic that made them a top 5 unit and the backbone of a very poor team. For me 3-4 wins seem likely, especially as they have an extremely tough schedule as do two other teams in this division.
New York Jets – Last season the Jets showed us they have a championship defence but their quarterback play and offensive line were sub-standard. Enter Aaron Rodgers, a revamped offensive line and compared to the other 3 teams in this division a much easier schedule. Are the planets lining up for the men in green?
Make no mistake this is a very good roster, the defence should be great again, the offensive line has been improved and all the skill position weapons are there. If they can all stay healthy then I see 10 plus wins and a shot at the divisional title. I’m a backer of OVER 10.5 wins @ 2.30
No comment