Colchester v Shrewsbury

Colchester United v Shrewsbury Town
Colchester – ¾ and 2 ¼ goals
The recent sacking of Michael Appleton at Shrewsbury has somewhat dulled my appetite for this game as prior to that it would have been a battle of two of my favourite ex-Lincoln City managers! Danny and Nicky Cowley remain at the helm in Essex though and they will have pinpointed this game as a real opportunity to push on towards the Play Off positions. The Shrews come into this game sat in 22nd spot lying three points above 23rd placed Newport.

Since the Cowley’s took over at Colchester they are just 2-4-2 at home to relegated sides but this Shrewsbury side has had a poor campaign since they were demoted for this campaign. Only once though in those eight games in this spot have Colchester failed to find the back of the net. The Cowley’s have never been a management team to trust to win by margin. They are a completely results driven management team which often sees them refuse to put their foot down when in control of games. They like to manage risk and often pass up opportunities to extend a lead to make sure they keep it tight from a defensive perspective. Of the thirty-one victories in their ninety-four-game reign only fifteen of them have come by two or more goals. That said, eighteen of those wins have come at home where ten have seen them register a winning margin of two or more goals.

Speaking after their 1-0 defeat at Crewe last Saturday the Colchester boss said he was “proud of his side” as due to their injuries they could have fielded an entirely different team for the trip. Cowley said his side looked “clear” in their minds and the new players he was forced to bring in showed “cohesion and organisation and had 62% of the ball and registered 20 shots to 3”.  I sense that Colchester will not fear Shrewsbury’s attacking threat but if they allow them to hang in the game there is always the chance that the Shrews can score.

Shrewsbury are an awful 1-3-10 on their travels this season and have failed to score in five of those fourteen trips. Speaking after their goalless draw in his opening game in charge new boss Gavin Cowan said “I had to make us hard to beat.”  In some ways the result showed that Cowan had been successful but in terms of the metrics from the game I am not so sure. Barnet had 77% of the ball, had 18 shots at goal of which 7 were on target. I have often gone on about how over-rated Barnet have been this season so would any other side have failed to win the game?

The Verdict
Colchester are correctly priced as strong favourites for this game but knowing the Cowley’s as I do it is difficult to trust them to win by margin against a side who struggles to score goals. If you throw into the mix all their injury concerns, I sense all the risk/reward here is with siding with the away side. They have several experienced players in the shape of Sam Clucas and John Marquis so sense they have more than enough to stay in this game and keep it close. If you leave your wager till nearer kick off you may get a better price and anywhere offering Shrewsbury +1 around the 1.80 level should be considered.
Back Shrewsbury + ¾ goals @ 2.05 with Bet365

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