Oklahoma City lead the Spurs 3-2. Tonight is WCF Game 6 in San Antonio. A Thunder win sends them to the NBA Finals. A Spurs win forces a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.
The series has the shape of a genuine contest. Both teams finished above 60 wins in the regular season — OKC at 64-18, San Antonio at 62-20. The Spurs won Games 3 and 4 on home court. The Thunder responded in Game 5 with 127 points, 43.8% from beyond the arc, and SGA delivering 32 points and nine assists on a night when Jalen Williams was not on the floor.
That Game 5 performance is the loudest argument for Oklahoma City closing this series tonight. They were without their second-best player for a third straight game and won by 13.
SGA and the depth behind him
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went 16-of-17 from the free throw line in Game 5. Alex Caruso, who scored zero points in Game 4, responded with 22 points on four three-pointers. He is averaging 17 points per game in this series on 58.1% from deep. Chet Holmgren added 16 points and 11 rebounds.
Jalen Williams is listed as questionable again with the left hamstring strain that has kept him out since Game 2. Ajay Mitchell is confirmed out with a right soleus problem. Jared McCain, picked up from Philadelphia at February’s trade deadline, started in Williams’ place in Game 5 and held his own. If Williams returns tonight, even in limited minutes, OKC’s half-court options widen considerably. If he sits again, Caruso and McCain need to sustain a run they have now delivered once.
Wembanyama and what the Spurs need
Victor Wembanyama is not a 4-of-15 shooter. Game 5 was a rough night. He still scored 20 points, and Stephon Castle’s 24 points, six assists and three steals on the same evening is a reminder the Spurs can generate offence through multiple routes.
De’Aaron Fox and Castle give San Antonio a playmaking core capable of generating pace and transition. The Spurs won twice at Frost Bank Center already in this series. Their crowd is a factor, it was in Games 3 and 4. If Wembanyama finds his rhythm in the opening period, they have a path to Game 7.
The question is whether he finds it. His best games in this series came when he was aggressive at the rim early in the first quarter. When he defers, the offence stalls and the Spurs run half-court sets that OKC’s defence can organise against. Getting him right-minded from tip-off is San Antonio’s primary task.
The one thing that matters most
Williams’ availability is the single biggest variable for tonight. OKC showed they can win without him. But a Williams-available Thunder is a more complete team, and SGA with a second primary creator beside him gives the Oklahoma City offence another gear.
The Thunder have home court in this series. They do not have it tonight. Game 5 showed they can win on the road when they are at their best.
Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs. Thursday 28 May, 8:30pm ET. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Broadcast: NBC/Peacock.
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