They were backing Ryan Moore and the 7-4 favourite. They should have backed the horse that was last turning in.
Thundering On won the 2026 Betfred Oaks in stunning fashion on Friday, sweeping past Legacy Link at the furlong marker and drawing clear for a three-and-three-quarter-length victory on Good to Soft ground at Epsom. Dylan Browne McMonagle barely moved. Joseph O’Brien had his first Betfred Oaks as a trainer. Amelia Earhart, the horse Ryan Moore chose and the market backed at 7-4, was beaten out of sight.
The Betfred Oaks 2026 delivered a result that only became obvious from the furlong pole onward. Up to that point, it was anyone’s race. Then McMonagle pressed the button, and it was no contest.
What the Market Said
Amelia Earhart held all the logical claims going into the race. Ryan Moore was in the saddle. The trainer had Classic form. She was bred for Epsom. Moore’s mount selections are never casual, when he takes a ride in a Group 1 Classic, the market reacts and this one shortened her to 7-4 favourite.
Thundering On went off at 5-1. Looking at it purely through the market lens, that was the value price.
The 5-1 shot had shown the right form in the build-up at O’Brien’s Tipperary yard. The Tattenham Course at Epsom rewards fillies that travel smoothly and finish powerfully. Thundering On did both on Friday, and the market, focused on Moore’s ride, did not price that in correctly.
The Race — How It Unfolded
Nine runners set off on Good to Soft ground over 1 mile 4 furlongs and 6 yards. Conditions were testing but fair. Legacy Link took up a forward position. Amelia Earhart tracked the pace. Thundering On settled at the back of the field, McMonagle asking nothing from her through the first half of the race.
Turning into the straight at Tattenham Corner, the race was still developing. Amelia Earhart moved into contention. Legacy Link held her place near the front. Thundering On was still last or near to last.
Then McMonagle switched her out and let her run.
She swept through the field as if the others were going backwards. Alongside Legacy Link at the furlong marker, the race was already over. The winning margin was three and three-quarter lengths. Legacy Link was second. Sugar Island took third. Amelia Earhart finished out of the places. Winning time: 2 minutes 39.64 seconds.
O’Brien’s First Betfred Oaks
Joseph O’Brien now has his name on the Betfred Oaks roll of honour as a trainer. This was his first win in the race. His father Aidan has won the Oaks multiple times, and the son is building his own formidable Classic record across Britain and Ireland.
O’Brien’s operation in Tipperary produces horses at the highest level year after year. Friday confirmed that the process extends to the Epsom Classics, not just the Irish equivalents. The family’s grip on European Classic racing continues.
McMonagle’s Saturday Assignment
Dylan Browne McMonagle rides Thundering On in the Oaks on Friday and James J Braddock in the Derby on Saturday. Back-to-back Classic rides at Epsom. Back-to-back opportunities.
The Derby field is stronger. Benvenuto Cellini is the market leader under Ryan Moore for Aidan O’Brien, who bids for a fourth consecutive Derby win. Item is unbeaten this season after the Dante. Pierre Bonnard carries strong credentials from the O’Brien yard.
James J Braddock is an each-way proposition in the Derby market. Whether McMonagle can repeat Friday’s magic in a deeper field against a more fancied favourite is Saturday’s question.
What Friday confirmed is that he handles Classic pressure with ease. Thundering On was not the obvious winner. He made her look like one.
The Favourite Question
Amelia Earhart ran her race. Nine fillies on a testing surface over this trip is a genuine examination. She was not disgraced in the way a short-price favourite can sometimes be disgraced. She simply met a better filly on the day, at a price that was three ticks longer.
That is what 7-4 favourites do occasionally at Epsom. They get beaten. It is a course that produces genuine upsets, because the layout — the climb to the top, the sharp descent to Tattenham Corner, the long straight, catches horses that prefer a more even gallop. Fillies that travel and quicken thrive. Thundering On ticked both boxes.
Looking Ahead
Group 1 Oaks winners tend to have strong summer campaigns. The Yorkshire Oaks at York in August is the natural next target for fillies who win at Epsom. The Irish Oaks at the Curragh in July is another option. O’Brien will decide based on the ground and how she trains between now and then.
For traders: the value in Thundering On at 5-1 is gone. The question next time is whether the market will overcorrect, pricing her too short after a Classic win on a course that suits her. Watch the market at the declaration stage for her next race, not on the morning of the event.
She is a quality filly. She showed that clearly on Friday. What she does with the rest of the season depends on ground, opposition and the schedule O’Brien sets for her.
Our Analysis
Thundering On was the right price and the right horse on Friday at Epsom. The betting data model flagged value in the 5-1 chance against a market that focused heavily on the favourite. The result was clean.
Joseph O’Brien adds another Classic to his training record. McMonagle adds another Group 1 to his riding record. Epsom adds another surprise to its long list of them.
For the full analytics on Saturday’s Betfred Derby, including model ratings and market assessment for Benvenuto Cellini, Item and the rest — see the Derby preview on the TradeOnSports blog.
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