Please see below Matt Haynes K League Betting Notes.
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Week Three K League
Friday
Pohang v Seoul – Pohang comfortably won their opening home match but couldn’t hold onto their first half lead away at Daegu last week and came away with a point in a 1-1 draw. Seoul completely dominated their match last weekend at home to Gwangju but could only score once in a 1-0 victory, in both matches this season they have looked to have had attacking problems in the final 3rd.
Historical Stats
Pohang went 11-3-4 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Seoul went 7-3-7 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 went 9-9 when Pohang played at home.
Under 2.5 went 6-11 when Seoul played away.
Pohang were priced between 2.00 & 2.49 FIVE times at home over the last two seasons, winning FOUR, drawing NONE and losing ONE. They scored in every game.
Seoul were priced between 3.00 & 3.49 TWICE when playing away last season, winning NONE, drawing NONE and losing TWO. They scored in both games.
Last FIVE years H2H at Pohang 4-1-1 W-L-D to the home side & OVER 2.5 has gone 5-1. Pohang have won both historical H2H matches when priced within this range (2.00-2.49).
Unbeaten over the first two weekends Pohang have looked a good side that have shown a decent attacking threat which Seoul will have to be wary of. In contrast Seoul have looked hopeless in the final 3rd, extremely lacklustre with no cohesion and it’s this lack of potency from Seoul that automatically stops me looking at goals in this match. Historically, Pohang are strong at home and with both sides at relative full strength I don’t see this version of Seoul upsetting the odds here unless they improve dramatically on what they have shown so far this season. I’d price-up Pohang at even money or thereabouts, so if we can get 2.30 plus on the match odds, I’ll be a backer.
Saturday
Gangwon v Seongnam – Gangwon played well up until the second goal went in last week then their heads dropped, but all match they were guilty of wasting way too many chances and eventually paid the price losing 2-0 away at Sangju Sangmu.
Seongnam are unbeaten after two matches and are yet to concede a goal. They seem to set themselves up very conservatively and are ultra-defensive.
Historical Stats
Gangwon went 9-3-6 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Seongnam went 5-3-10 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 went 7-11 when Gangwon were at home
Under 2.5 went 11-7 when Seongnam played away.
Gangwon were priced between 2.00 & 2.49 at home SEVEN times over the last two seasons, winning FIVE, drawing NONE and losing TWICE. They scored an average of 2.29 goals per match over this seven-game sample.
Seongnam were priced between 3.00 & 3.99 away NINE times over the last two seasons, winning TWO and drawing NONE and losing SEVEN. They scored an average of 0.67 goals per match over this nine-game sample.
Historical stats point to Gangwon as being the right side here and as long as they play with patience and don’t get caught out on the counter, I can see their front three eventually breaking down a stubborn Seongnam defence with their rapid movement. For me the away side just don’t score enough goals at this level (32 in their last 40 K League games) to come away with anything more than a draw. Given this train of thought the safest bet quite possibly is to back Gangwon on the Asian handicap -0.25 goals at around 1.80 minimum, this way if the match ends in a draw we only lose half stake.
Suwon v Incheon – Suwon have lost both their opening two games and blew a two-goal lead last week at home to Ulsan, they need to improve at the back. Incheon have yet to concede this season drawing both their opening matches 0-0.
Historical Stats
Suwon went 4-6-8 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Incheon went 4-5-8 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 went 11-7 when Suwon were at home
Under 2.5 went 9-8 when Incheon played away.
Suwon were priced between 1.50 & 1.99 at home FIVE times over the last two seasons, winning TWO, drawing ONE and losing TWO. They scored an average of 0.83 goals per match over this five-game sample.
Incheon were priced between 4.50 & 4.99 away SIX times over the last two seasons, winning TWO and drawing ONE and losing THREE. They scored an average of 1.33 goals per match over this six-game sample.
Last FIVE years H2H at Suwon 5-1-1 W-L-D to the home side & OVER 2.5 has gone 5-2.
Both teams will be looking for something from this match and this should be a tight affair, Suwon have the best recent form even though they have lost they have lost to the best two teams in the division whereas Incheon haven’t found the back of the net yet against two average teams. I think Suwon will be a decent side to watch over the summer as they will score and leak goals all season. So, I believe Incheon can score here for the first time this season, especially if star forward Stefan Mugosa can continue his push back to full fitness (he faded badly in the 2nd half last week). The bet I’m looking at here then is to back BTTS around even money, when its confirmed that Mugosa starts for Incheon.
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