Please see below Matt Haynes K League Betting Notes.
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FRIDAY
Week 4 K League
Daegu v Sangju Sangmu – Daegu lost away 2-0 at Jeonbuk last weekend and they just couldn’t break Jeonbuk down. There has been a big drift on Daegu in the betting markets, from opening odds on to a current 2.20. This has pushed the Asian handicap on them down to – ¼ goal. Sangju won 1-0 last week at home to Gwangju in a very poor game.
Historical Stats
Daegu are 6-8-3 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Sangju Sangmu are 5-4-9 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 10-7 when Daegu play at home
Under 2.5 is 8-10 when Sangju Sangmu played away.
Daegu were priced between 2.00 & 2.49 at home SIX times over the last two seasons, winning THREE, drawing ONE and losing TWICE. They are showing a profit of 7.17% ROI if blindly backed to win when priced within this bracket.
Sangju Sangmu were priced between 3.00 & 3.99 away SEVEN times over the last two seasons, winning THREE, drawing ONE and losing THREE.
Winless Daegu only managed 3 shots on target last week and cannot breakdown defences it seems, this is a far cry from last season where their high tempo counter-attacking football made them one of Korea’s most entertaining teams. Sangju have some first-team players returning from injury this weekend and I guess this is behind the move in the betting. For me this is a leave alone for the following reasons, even though Sangju have won their last two games they have been far from convincing and its more than plausible that Daegu could bounce back here and find their shooting boots but I’m not going to be betting on it.
SATURDAY
Gangwon v Jeonbuk – Gangwon have been a little inconsistent over the first three matches with a win a draw and a loss. Unbeaten Jeonbuk won 2-0 against Daegu last week but looked a little lacklustre in attack showing little creativity, their class saw them through in the end.
Historical Stats
Gangwon are 9-4-6 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Jeonbuk are 10-6-1 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 8-11 when Gangwon play at home
Under 2.5 is 7-10 when Jeonbuk played away.
Gangwon were priced between 4.00 & 4.49 at home TWICE over the last two seasons, winning NONE, drawing ONE and losing ONE. Both of those matches were against Jeonbuk and OVER 2.5 landed both times.
Jeonbuk were priced between 1.50 & 1.99 away FOURTEEN times over the last two seasons, winning EIGHT, drawing SIX and losing NONE. They scored an average of 2.07 goals per match over this fourteen-game sample.
After putting in a great performance on the opening weekend when winning away at Seoul, Gangwon will be looking to bounce back from two poor performances here and I can definitely see them turning up against the best side in Korea and this could be a very entertaining match, they usually score at home and I think we’ll definitely see some goals in this game. My plan for a trade in this match is to wait until 15 or 20 minutes have passed and if it’s still 0-0 then look to back over 2.5 goals at above even money.
Busan v Suwon – Suwon struggled to put away Incheon last weekend but eventually won the game with a penalty 1-0, the Bluebirds manager seems to be on borrowed time. Busan dug out a great result last weekend drawing 1-1 away at Ulsan, it was a much-improved performance and showed that they could compete at this level.
Historical Stats
Busan are newly promoted so we have hardly any data to look at.
Suwon are 6-4-7 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 10-7 when Suwon played away.
Suwon were priced between 2.00 & 2.49 away FOUR times over the last two seasons, winning NONE, drawing ONE and losing THREE. They only scored in one match over this four-game sample.
The away side look vulnerable here to me and the market seems to agree as they have drifted from an opening 2.22 to a current 2.45. After facing the two best sides in Korea, Busan should line up in a more attacking formation here and I’m expecting them to play at a faster pace than they have done so far this season, they should also be able to dictate the tempo against this Suwon team who have looked to be seriously lacking in creativity and spark so far this season. I’m going to back Busan to avoid defeat on the Asian Handicap 0 goal line at around 2.20.
Gwangju v Ulsan – Gwangju lost away 1-0 to Sangju Sangmu last weekend in what was a very dull game, they recorded just one shot on target for the third consecutive game and they very much look short of quality and will have an extremely tough season in the top flight. Ulsan drew 1-1 last weekend at home to Busan despite having a fair few chances and dominating possession.
Historical Stats
Gwangju are newly promoted and we have hardly any data to look at.
Ulsan are 9-6-3 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 5-13 when Ulsan play away.
Ulsan were priced between 1.50 & 1.99 away SEVEN times over the last two seasons, winning FOUR, drawing TWO and losing ONE. They scored an average of 2.57 goals per match over this seven-game sample.
Gwangju look up against it here, they are yet to score this season and have looked completely outclassed at this level. Ulsan are genuine title contenders and should come away with a comfortable win.
SUNDAY
Seoul v Seongnam – Seoul fell behind early on against Pohang away, but came back to secure the win 1-2. They look very accomplished at set pieces which follows the pattern from last season. Seongnam drew 1-1 in an even match against Gangwon last weekend.
Historical Stats
Seoul are 9-6-3 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Seongnam are 5-4-10 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 8-10 when Seoul play at home
Under 2.5 is 12-7 when Seongnam played away.
Seoul were priced between 2.00 & 2.49 at home TEN times over the last two seasons, winning SIX, drawing FOUR and losing NONE. They are showing a 35% ROI in this spot where it seems they have been extremely strong over the last two seasons.
Seongnam were priced between 3.00 & 3.49 away SEVEN times over the last two seasons, winning TWO, drawing NONE and losing FIVE. Their two wins came against a relegated side last season and a newly promoted one this season.
This looks to be a great spot for Seoul where they are historically strong & Seongnam are historically weak to record back to back victories and their match odds of 2.30 look very tasty indeed. Seongnam are undefeated this season and their defence is once again performing well as teams struggle to break them down BUT those teams have been Gwangju & Incheon, this is a huge step up in class for this defence and one that I can’t see it passing especially if as reported highly rated 21-year-old striker Cho Young-wook finally makes his seasonal debut for Seoul on Sunday. I’m a backer of Seoul to continue their winning run at 2.30 on the match odds.
Incheon v Pohang – Incheon lost away 1-0 to a Suwon penalty last week in a poor game, they are very organised at the back but can’t seem to score. Pohang blew an early lead at home last week against Seoul and lost 1-2, there back-line looks hugely suspect. They have been backed in from an opening 2.65 into a current 1.86, this is a huge move
Historical Stats
Incheon are 1-8-9 W-D-L at home over the last two seasons.
Pohang are 4-4-9 W-D-L away over the last two seasons.
Under 2.5 is 11-7 when Incheon play at home
Under 2.5 is 11-6 when Pohang played away.
Incheon were priced between 4.00 and above at home FIVE times over the last two seasons, winning NONE, drawing THREE and losing TWO. Both of those losing matches were against Jeonbuk & Ulsan the two best sides in the division.
Pohang were priced between 1.50 & 1.99 away ZERO times over the last two seasons, the shortest price they have been was 2.25 where they won away 0-1 at relegated Gyeongnam last season.
The question for me here is, is the market over-rating Pohang due to Incheon’s forward Kehinde missing this match and the home sides woe in front of goal? Incheon historically only lose to the best teams in the league in this spot and I’m willing to take a small bet on the home side avoiding defeat once more in a low scoring game and backing them on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals @ 2.40.
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