Celtic vs Rangers kicks off at 12pm on Sunday at Celtic Park, live on Sky Sports, seven days after Rangers won 3-0 at Ibrox in the League Cup. It is the first league Old Firm of the season. Celtic have a perfect league record and a two-game losing run. Rangers have won their last four.
What is at stake
Celtic lead the Scottish Premiership on 18 points from six games: six wins, 14 goals scored, three conceded. Hearts are second on 13 from seven. Rangers are third on 13 from six, with four wins, a draw and a defeat.
Sky Sports points out that Celtic will be top at the international break whatever happens. The size of the lead is what is in play. A Rangers win would cut it to two points. A defeat would leave them eight adrift.
Form and the recent meeting
Celtic have won three and lost two of their last five in all competitions, and the two defeats are the most recent. They lost 3-0 at Ibrox on 13 September, when Dan Neil scored in the 23rd and 75th minutes and Kevin Kelsy added a third on his Old Firm debut. Four days later they lost 3-1 at home to Ferencvaros in the Europa League. That is six goals conceded in two games, after three in their first six league matches.
Rangers are unbeaten in their last five and have won their last four. Derek McInnes’s league wins have all come by a single goal, and the attack is less fluent than the results suggest: seven league goals from 128 shots is a 5.5% conversion rate, the lowest in the division, according to Opta.
The home record matters too. Celtic have won six of their last eight Premiership meetings with Rangers at Celtic Park, and lost two. They have won 13 Premiership games in a row, with the last league defeat a 2-0 loss at Dundee United in March.
The record on offer
Playing Celtic in back-to-back games and winning both is rare. Across all competitions, there are only two previous instances of Rangers doing it: September 1960 under Scot Symon, and April 1998 under Walter Smith. A win would also make McInnes only the second Rangers manager to win his first two Old Firm games in charge, after Graeme Souness in 1986.
Key players
Celtic: Callum McGregor, the captain, and Kieran Tierney are the experienced names in a side under pressure after two heavy defeats. Kasper Høgh has three league goals from 2.99 expected goals, so his numbers match his output.
Rangers: Neil and Kelsy scored the goals last Sunday. Neil got two of them, in the 23rd and 75th minutes, and Kelsy scored on his Old Firm debut.
Team news
Celtic are without Alistair Johnston, and Yang Hyun-jun is away on Asian Games duty. Sky Sports reports selection questions for Martin O’Neill at several positions. Only Celtic supporters will be in the ground, because of a ticket allocation dispute. Line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you read too much into any team news.
Tactical notes
The main tension is between Celtic’s defence and Rangers’ finishing. Celtic have been solid over six league games and porous in their last two. Rangers create plenty and convert poorly in the league, but they took their chances last Sunday. If the Rangers front line stays efficient, Celtic’s recent defensive errors will be tested. If it reverts to its league conversion rate, Celtic’s league form and home record should carry more weight.
Three things to watch
- The first goal. Rangers scored first last Sunday, in the 23rd minute, and never trailed. Four of Celtic’s six league wins have been by a single goal, so an early goal for either side will shape how the game is played.
- Celtic’s response after two defeats. Six goals conceded in two games is a sharp change from three in the first six league matches. A home ground filled only with their own supporters may help them.
- Rangers’ finishing. A 5.5% league conversion rate is the lowest in the division. Last Sunday they scored three. One of those two numbers is the outlier.
Our lean
We see a tight game with the edge to Celtic on league form and home record, tempered by Rangers’ momentum and the psychological effect of last week. One goal could decide it. A scoreline inside a goal either way would not surprise us. This is a probability call, not a certainty; treat it as one input.
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