Slovenia vs Scotland on Saturday is the first game of the Sébastien Pocognoli era, and it comes without Scott McTominay, who is recovering from a heart procedure. Kick-off at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana is 2pm UK time (3pm local). Scotland have not played since losing 3-0 to Brazil at the World Cup on 24 June, so this is a reset as much as a fixture.
What is at stake
Scotland and Slovenia sit in League B, Group 1 with Switzerland and North Macedonia. Nobody has played yet, so all four teams are on 0 points. Each side plays six group games, home and away.
The format is simple. The group winners are promoted to League A. The runners-up go into a play-off against League A opposition. Third place stays in League B, and the fourth-placed team faces a League B/C play-off against a League C runners-up. For both teams, the realistic aim is a top-two finish. Fourth is the place to avoid.
The same two teams meet again at Barclays Hampden on Tuesday 6 October, so there are two chances to take points off each other.
Scotland: new manager, mixed form
Pocognoli succeeded Steve Clarke and named a 28-man squad on 15 September. Seven players are uncapped, and 14 were not in the World Cup squad. Ché Adams is injured, and McTominay is out.
Scotland’s last five games, most recent first, read L, L, W, W, W: defeats to Brazil (3-0) and Morocco (1-0), then wins over Haiti (1-0), Bolivia (4-0) and Curaçao (4-1). That is nine goals scored and five conceded. The context matters. Three of those games were World Cup group matches, which ended in a group-stage exit, and two were warm-up friendlies.
Slovenia: the friendlies are over
Boštjan Cesar named 26 players on 15 September. Slovenia’s last five games, most recent first, read L, D, W, L, D: a 2-1 defeat to Croatia on 7 June, a 1-1 draw with Cyprus, a 3-2 win at Montenegro, a 1-0 defeat at Hungary and a 1-1 draw at Sweden in a World Cup qualifier last November. They have scored six and conceded seven.
Four of those five were friendlies. Cesar said as much: after the games in March and June, this time it is serious. The squad leans on the established core, with Nik Prelec called up for the first time. Defenders Kenan Bajrić and Marcel Ratnik are injured, and Peter Stojanović is recovering from knee surgery.
Key players
Scotland: Andy Robertson is captain and John McGinn is vice-captain, so the leadership group is settled. Robbie Ure is the uncapped name to watch. Ure, now at Sevilla, scored 20 goals in 20 games for Sirius before a £5.5m move in the summer.
Slovenia: Jan Oblak of Atlético Madrid is the goalkeeper, Jaka Bijol of Leeds is the defender, and Benjamin Šeško of Manchester United is back in the squad after injury problems.
Head-to-head
The recent record is thin and old. Scotland beat Slovenia 1-0 in a World Cup qualifier on 26 March 2017, and a later 2017 qualifier in Ljubljana finished 2-2. Treat the 2017 games as background, not evidence.
Tactical notes
Neither side has named a line-up, so anything on shape is a guess. What the results show is a pattern. Scotland scored four against Bolivia, four against Curaçao and nothing in two games against Morocco and Brazil. Slovenia scored once in three of their last five, three against Montenegro, and none against Hungary.
For Scotland, the question is how Pocognoli sets up without McTominay. For Slovenia, it is whether a defence missing two injured players can hold against a Scotland side that scored eight in its two warm-up games. Home advantage at Stožice helps Slovenia.
Three things to watch
- Pocognoli’s first line-up. Without McTominay, we will learn how much of the World Cup shape survives.
- Slovenia’s back line. Bajrić and Ratnik are out, so Cesar has less depth in defence.
- The first goal. Both sides have scored once or not at all in several recent games, so an early goal changes what each team has to do.
The window ahead
This is the first of four games in the international window for each side. Scotland follow Ljubljana with Switzerland at Hampden on Tuesday 29 September (7.45pm UK time), then travel to North Macedonia in Skopje on Saturday 3 October (7.45pm) before the return with Slovenia at Hampden on 6 October (7.45pm). Slovenia stay in Ljubljana to host North Macedonia on 29 September, visit Switzerland in Lucerne on 3 October, and finish in Glasgow. A result on Saturday sets the tone for all of it.
Our lean
This looks close. Scotland’s last five show nine scored and five conceded, against six and seven for Slovenia, but they include two friendlies and a first game for a new manager. Slovenia have home advantage and a settled squad. We lean towards a tight, low-scoring game, with a draw a live outcome and a narrow Scotland win the most likely alternative. Treat this as a probability, not a certainty: neither team has an obvious edge in the data.
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