At Trade on Tennis we have developed an application that breaks down key statistics in a tennis player’s record and as tennis is a sport that is decided by fine margins these micro stats help us in our quest to trade the markets with clarity. In this article I’m going to use the application to assess some WTA players using certain criteria to give you an idea of what the app can do and how it can help serious traders & bettors.
The average Top 50 player holds 69.1% of the time across all surfaces, now everybody knows the big server’s, Goerges, Barty, Garcia, Konta, Osaka, Keys, Pliskova, Kvitova & Sabalenka to name a few, and all of these girls comfortably hold over the Top 50 mean. Other girls that you wouldn’t think of as having a big serve that hold comfortably over the 12-month mean are Wozniacki, Svitolina & the teenage sensation Anisimova. On the subject of young players (20 or younger), we can add Vondrousova & Kuzmova as potentially big servers who should do well on fast surfaces in the future as long as they progress of course.
One of the first things we need to assess when a match is in-play is who starts quickly and, on the flip-side who needs a few games to get up to speed. The simplest thing to do would be to assume that the players are evenly matched, each with a 50% chance of taking the first break obviously this approach involves the minimum possible knowledge about the players and if we don’t know anything about who is playing then why would we think that either of the players has any advantage over the other?
The actual WTA top 100 mean number for taking the first break in set one is 50.88%
We can then use that to see who performs over expectation (fast starter) and who is below expectation (slow starter).
Quick Out Of The Blocks
Muguruza, Azarenka, Kozlova, Kerber, Mertens, Sevastova, Stephens, Wang, Barty & Anisimova. We can also give honourary mentions to Pliskova & Buzarnescu.
I Need Time To Warm Up
Peterson, Brengle, Schmiedlova, Larsson, Kumkhum, Bouchard, Arruabarrena, Maria, Vickery & Vogele. Honouorary mentions to Taylor Townsend & Venus Williams as well.
So, now we have some idea who to potentially back or oppose early in the match but what about late in set 1? Who likes to strike late or who cant hold their nerve is I feel vital information for traders and bettors.
Cool & Deadly – Strikes late in the set.
Hercog, Maria, S Zheng, Voegele, Sharapova, Osaka, Halep, Vekic, Keys & Mertens.
Mental Midgets
Flipkens, Niculescu, Brengle, Potapova, Lapko, Azarenka, Schmiedlova, Mladenovic, Linette & Sakkari.
We can then use this information alongside serving stats, for instance we can look at who is clutch when serving it out or serving to stay in the 1st set and of course vice-versa.
All of this information and much more is available in the Trade On Tennis application.
Finally, we will finish this article with the players who are very good at recovering a deficit in the 1st set.
All of the following girls are worth backing when a break and, in some cases, a double break down in set one.
Wozniacki, Collins, Diyas, Sharapova, Bertens, Zidansek, Stephens, Radwanska, Buznarnescu & Kvitova. We can also consider Venus, Schmiedlova & Cirstea in this spot as well.
I hope this article has given you some food for thought and when the new season begins in January make sure you are armed with the detail you need to successfully navigate the tennis markets.
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