Eight Years On, England Face Croatia Again
The 2018 World Cup semi-final finished Croatia 2-1 England, after extra time. It remains England’s closest World Cup exit in recent memory: a match they led at half-time, a match they were expected to win, a match that ended with Luka Modrić lifting the trophy above his head and Ivan Perišić celebrating a leveller that changed the tie.
Eight years on, these sides meet again. In a World Cup group stage. In Texas.
England are under new management. Tuchel replaced Southgate after the 2024 Euros and has had time to shape the team in his image. Croatia are still built around Modrić, now 40 years old and on 196 international caps. The history is loaded. The context is different. But no England fan will walk into AT&T Stadium without that 2018 semi-final somewhere at the back of their mind.
England’s Qualifying Numbers Set the Tone
England won all eight European qualifiers. Their goal difference across that campaign was 22-0. That figure is worth sitting with. Twenty-two goals scored, none conceded, eight wins from eight. That is not the form of a team in transition: that is the form of a team that has found a way to win with control.
Thomas Tuchel’s system has been described as a 4-2-3-1 in its base shape, with the flexibility to shift to a back three when the match requires it. The double pivot in central midfield gives England defensive security without sacrificing forward momentum.
Harry Kane captains the side and remains the focal point of the attack. Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins offer alternatives up front, both capable of bringing different dimensions: Toney with physicality and link-up play, Watkins with movement and pressing energy.
The squad selection itself generated debate before the tournament. Thomas Tuchel left Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and Trent Alexander-Arnold out of the squad. Those are significant absences, all players who featured prominently under the previous regime. In their place, Tuchel has brought in Myles Lewis-Skelly in a midfield role and preferred Jarell Quansah over Harry Maguire at centre-back. These are clear signals about what Tuchel wants from his team: athleticism, press resistance, and defensive discipline over individual flair.
Whether those calls prove correct will be tested starting Tuesday night.
Croatia: Modrić at 40, a Spine Recovering from Injury
Croatia continue to build around a player who defies straightforward assessment. Luka Modrić at 40 years old, 196 international caps, is still the tempo-setter, the player who controls the rhythm of games and drags Croatia forward when the moment demands it. Zlatko Dalić has built the national team around his influence for nearly a decade, and this World Cup will almost certainly be Modrić’s last.
That creates its own narrative pressure. But Croatia do not rely on sentiment. Their squad contains genuine quality beyond Modrić.
Joško Gvardiol is one of the best young defenders in world football. His presence was in doubt: he recovered from a fractured tibia that threatened his World Cup participation. That recovery is significant for Croatia’s defensive structure. Gvardiol against England’s forwards will be one of the key battles of this match. Mateo Kovačić, also recovering from injury, provides Modrić with a partner in the middle who can cover ground and carry the ball when Croatia need to shift the tempo.
Croatia’s big-game composure is not in question. They beat England in 2018 in a World Cup semi-final and reached the final of that tournament. They followed it with a third-place finish in 2022. This is a side that knows how to perform when the pressure is highest.
Tactical Notes
England’s 4-2-3-1 under Tuchel should give them control of the centre. The double pivot will aim to press Croatia high and limit the time Modrić has on the ball. If Modrić is restricted to quick, lateral passing rather than driving forward or playing through lines, England’s structure does its job.
Croatia will look to build patiently and use Modrić’s intelligence to find pockets of space. Their biggest threat may come from wide areas: if England’s full-backs push forward in support of the attack, Croatia can expose the space in behind on the counter.
Kane will be asked to hold the ball up, bring others into play, and take his chances in the box when they come. Watkins or Toney off the bench adds a fresh option if the game is tight late on.
One area to watch: set pieces. England have historically been strong at set plays, and with Kane and Quansah both offering aerial threat, Croatia’s defensive organisation from corners and free kicks will be tested.
The Qualifying Record Is England’s Argument
England do not arrive in Texas with doubts about their form. A 22-0 goal difference across eight unbeaten qualifiers is the kind of record that speaks for itself. They have kept clean sheets consistently and scored from a variety of sources, not just from Kane.
Croatia qualified, but they are a side whose golden generation is ageing. Modrić at 40 cannot cover the ground he covered at 32. Gvardiol recovering from a fractured tibia is a concern, even if he is fit for this game. The squad depth behind the experienced names is thinner than it has been.
The data lean is England. They have the better qualifying record, the better defensive numbers, and the depth in attack to wear down a Croatia side that will need to protect its physical resources carefully across the group stage.
The 2018 result will not be forgotten in the England dressing room. But the team on the pitch is different, the manager is different, and the context is different.
Group L: The Rest of the Picture
Group L contains England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. In a 48-team World Cup, the top two advance to the Round of 32. Three points from this opener would give England a strong grip on qualification. Croatia need points here too: a loss to England would put them immediately under pressure from Ghana and Panama in the remaining matches.
For England fans, this is the match they have been waiting to define from the first draw. The memory of Moscow 2018 is real. The chance to address it begins on 17 June in Arlington, Texas.
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