Football Trading the World Cup 2018

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Football Trading the World Cup 2018

By |June 10th, 2018|Blog, Trading|0 Comments

On Thursday 14th June the World Cup begins in Russia and the members of MG World, Hunting For Profit and Trade on Sports are going to combine and pull resources for Football trading the tournament.

All members of the above services will have access to the Trade on Sports Football App which can be used for Pre-Match trading as well as In play scenarios. Non-members of the Trade on Sports service will have access to the App up to 31st of July.

We will be using the World Cup Skype Room.

The World Cup is unique in the fact that liquidity is not a problem in any of the markets and we shall be concentrating on the following markets.

Match, Goals Over / Under, Group Winners, Qualify from Group and the Outright Winners market.

Trading the pre-match markets can be lucrative as once a price starts moving it can carry on moving.

Also, we are looking at out of the box thinking to trade the outright markets.

Here is an example of How I traded the Euro 2016 tournament where the scenarios were low risk v high reward. This was taken from my blog at the time.

Over the next two days of the knockout stages in the EURO 2016 I can see a couple of potentially good football trading opportunities. Here my major aim is to preserve capital and only become involved in trades that are low risk, where the risk v reward is good and where the upside far outweighs the downside.

The Croatia v Portugal game has now finished with Portugal winning 1-0 in extra time. In the next round they come up against a Poland side which they are rated above, and where the odds suggest they are the stronger side.

Portugal are also in the weaker side of the draw where their highest rated rivals are Belgium.

Currently Portugal are priced around 7.50 in the outright market, and my opening play will be to back them to win the tournament.

Here my strategy and thought process is that I am hoping that one of the more fancied sides goes out of the tournament over the next 2 days. Should this happen then Portugal’s price will almost certainly shorten.

Today we have France v Republic of Ireland, Germany v Slovakia and Hungary v Belgium.

Although France and Germany are obviously strong favourites both sides are in the opposite side of the draw, where potentially they could go on to face some tough looking opponents. In this case Germany will face Italy or Spain, whilst France would potentially face England.

As regards the other game, Hungary have been one of the surprise packages of the tournament and here they face a very talented but inconsistent Belgian side. Although Hungary have not beaten Belgium in their 5 historical meetings (Belgium 4 wins, 1 Draw & Hungary 0 wins), records are there to be broken in what could possibly be a hard-fought match.

Now it all depends how active you want to be in the market, but should the Republic of Ireland or Slovakia take the lead in their respective matches then I would look to temporarily close my position as Portugal’s price will almost certainly come in, leaving you with a nice profit.

However should France or Germany then equalise and consequently go onto win the match then Portugal’s price would again come out, and you can then look to re-enter the market by again backing Portugal to win the tournament.

I would anticipate that during the Hungary v Belgium match Portugal’s price will be particularly sensitive to any movement, because as previously stated Belgium are in the same side of the draw. So here you could close your trade pre match and re-enter should Belgium take the Lead, as this would push Portugal’s price out. In this scenario a Hungary equaliser would again see Portugal’s price contract, leaving you with the opportunity to take a very nice profit.

Then moving onto Monday we have Italy v Spain and should Spain go out then there will be 13% of the book to be redistributed.

Finally we have England v Iceland and we all know that England never make things easy, where here again you could close the trade should Iceland take the lead.

Once the 2nd round matches have completed then I will look to close the trade, and reassess my position from there.

My second potential trade will be to back France should they beat the Republic of Ireland this afternoon.

However I would ONLY look to back them in the following scenario.

In the Germany/Slovakia match should Germany take the lead then their price will come in and Frances will come out. AFTER letting the market settle I will then look to back France. Should Slovakia then equalise then France’s price will almost certainly come in, and here I would look to close the trade.

Providing Germany do not put up a very dominant performance then this scenario would provide you with a very low risk trade where the risk v reward is at its optimum.

I would then do the same when England face Iceland. Should England take the lead then France’s price should again come out. Again once the outright market has settled. I would look to back France and look for Iceland to equalise before again closing the trade.

The above is an example where you are thinking outside the box, it takes a little discipline and patience to execute but it means you are controlling any downside whilst optimising any potential movement in price.

We look forward to welcoming you all to the World Cup room

Steve, Matt G Matt H & Pete