This weeks football value bets we look at the 5 season stats and trends that are to be considered in this weekends football betting markets.
My betting philosophy is mainly to go against the grain and back the outsider who is receiving goals.
Please see a round up of the strong stats in this weekends matches.
Norwich v Chelsea – Saturday 1230 BST
Chelsea’s away record to promoted sides reads a very positive Won 7, Draw 1, Lost 2
When we look at how promoted sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Top 6 finishing sides the record reads. Played 28, Won 3, Drawn 7 Lost 18
Here the stats are certainly pointing to the visitors. My ratings are suggesting that the game is priced correctly. However despite the positive way Norwich have stated the season and the plaudits they have received I believe the visitors can register their first win of the season.
Back Chelsea @ 1.83
Bournemouth v Manchester City – Sunday 1400 BST
Bournemouths home record to Top 6 finishing sides reads W3, D0 L7 and here they haver lost 3 of the 10 games by 3 or more goals.
Manchester Citys record away to Mid Table finishing sides reads W7, D1, L2 and they have won 2 of the 10 games by 3 or more goals
When we look at how Mid Table finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Top 6 finishing sides the record reads. Played 68, Won 11, Drawn 18, Lost 39
Only 12 (18%) of these 68 matches the visiting side won by 3 or more goals.
In the previous 4 head to heads at Bournemouth City have only won 1 by 3 or more goals.
Once again my ratings are suggesting that this game is priced correctly. However, Bournemouth have made a reasonable start to the season and the stats certainly suggest value backing the home side +2 goals.
Back Bournemouth +2 goals @ 2.04
This means for your bet to lose Man City have to win by 3 or more goals. If City win by 2 goals you get your money bavk. If Bournemouth win , draw or only lose by 1 goal your bet wins.
Monaco v Nimes – Sunday 1400 BST
Monacos home record to Mid Table finishing sides reads W2, D5 L3 and here they have won none of the games by 2 or more goals and 2 by 1 goal.
Nimes away record away to Bottom Half finishing sides reads a reasonable W5, D3, L2 and they themselves have lost none of the 10 games by 2 or more goals, whilst losing 2 by 1 goal.
When we look at how Bottom Half finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Mid Table finishing sides the record reads. Played 116, Won 40, Drawn 29, Lost 47
Only 15 (13%) of these 116 matches the home side won by 2 or more goals. Winning 25 by 1 goal
My ratings are suggesting there is good value backing Nimes +0.75 goals.
The negatives here is the bookmakers are anticipating that Monaco will have a far better season. However this is yet to be proven.
Back Nimes +0.75 goals @ 2.09
This means that should Monaco win by 2 or more goals you lose your whole stake. If Monaco win by 1 goal you lose half of your stake. If Nimes win or draw your bet wins.
Spurs v Newcastle Sunday 1630 BST
Spurs home record to Mid Table finishing sides reads W7, D1 L2 and here they have just 1 game by 3 or more goals and 2 by 2 goals
Newcastle’s record away to Top 6 finishing sides reads a very poor W0, D0, L10 and they themselves have lost just 1 of the 10 games by 3 or more goals, whilst losing 3 by 2 goals.
When we look at how Top 6 finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Mid Table finishing sides the record reads. Played 78, Won 56, Drawn 14, Lost 8
Only 14 (18%) of these 78 matches the home side won by 3 or more goals. Winning 19 by 2 goals
In the previous 4 head to heads at Spurs the home side have won just twice.
My ratings are suggesting there is good value backing Newcastlte +1.75 goals.
The only real negativity here is the way Newcastle have started their season and the fact that Newcastles good rating in this match will be down to the good work of Rafa Benitez.
However the general trends favour the visiting side on the handicap
Back Newcastle +1.75 Goals @ 2.00
This means that should Spurs win by 3 or more goals you lose your whole stake. If Spurs win by 2 goals you lose half of your stake. If Newcastle win, draw or only lose by 1 goal your bet wins.
Wolves v Burnley – Sunday 1630 BST
Wolves home record to Bottom Half finishing sides reads W5, D2, L3.
Burnleys away record to Top Half finishing sides reads W0, D3, L7
When we look at how Top Half finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Bottom Half finishing sides the record reads. Played 160, Won111, Drawn 30, Lost 19
There are a few negatives here. My ratings do suggest there is value backing Burnley. Also it should be noted that Wolves travel to Turin on Thursday for a Europa League game
Also if we look at how Mid Table finishing sides played in the first 6 games when hosting Bottom Half finishing sides. Then they only won 65 of 128 matches (51%).
Wolves could cement a top half place this season and this would indicate that the trends look strong for the home side
Back Wolves @ 1.83
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