This weeks football value bets we look at the 5 season stats and trends that are to be considered in this weekends football betting markets.
My betting philosophy is mainly to go against the grain and back the outsider who is receiving goals.
Please see a round up of the strong stats in this weekends matches.
Southampton v Manchester United – Saturday 1230 BST
Southampton’s home record to Top 6 finishing sides reads W2, D2 L6
Manchester United’s away record away to Bottom Half finishing sides reads a reasonable W5, D2, L3.
When we look at how Bottom Half finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Top 6 finishing sides the record reads. Played 102, Won 13, Drawn 19, Lost 70
Although Manchester United have made a slow start to the season the historical stats certainly point to the away side who have won 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 meetings at St Marys.
The risk v reward backing Manchester united -0.25 goals looks good.
Back Manchester United -0.25 @ 1.81
This means that should Manchester United win you win your bet. Should the game end a draw you lose half your stake. If Southampton win you lose your whole stake
Chelsea v Sheffield United – Saturday 1500 BST
Chelsea’s home record to promoted sides reads a very positive Won 7, Draw 3, Lost 0
It should also be noted that Chelsea have won all 7 of their victories at home to promoted sides by 2 or more goals.
When we look at how promoted sides have played away in the first 6 games of the season when visiting Top 6 finishing sides the record reads. Played 26, Won 0, Drawn 5 Lost 21 In these matches 17 of the 26 matches were won by 2 or more goals
Here the stats are certainly historically favouring the home side. The only real negative is my ratings suggest some slight value with Sheffield United, and indeed The Blades have made a reasonable start to the season. Also Chelsea look to be going through a transitional stage.
However historically everything points to the home side winning this match which makes the risk v reward worth taking on
Back Chelsea -1.25 @ 1.87
This means for your bet to win Chelsea have to win by 2 or more goals. Should Chelsea win by a single goal then you only lose half of your stake. Should the game end with a draw or Sheffield United victory then you lose all of your stake.
Leicester v Bournemouth – Saturday 1500 BST
Leicester’s home record to Mid Table finishing sides reads W3, D2 L5 and here they haver won 3 of the 10 games by 2 or more goals.
Bournemouth’s record away to Mid Table finishing sides reads W3, D2, L5 and they have lost 4 of the 10 games by 2 or more goals
When we look at how Mid Table finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting fellow Mid Table finishing sides the record reads. Played 91, Won 34, Drawn 25, Lost 32
Only 16 (17.5%) of these 91 matches the home side won by 2 or more goals.
There have been 3 draws in the previous 4 head to heads at Leicester.
My ratings are suggesting no value in the match line and the only real negative is if Leicester win or Bournemouth lose then there is a tendency for them to win/lose by 2 or more goals
However historically the stats look loaded supporting the away side +0.75 goals
Back Bournemouth +0.75 goals @ 2.00
This means that should Leicester win by 2 or more goals you lose your whole stake. If Leicester win by 1 goal you lose half of your stake. If Bournemouth win or draw your bet wins.
Man City v Brighton – Saturday 1500 BST
Man Citys home record to Bottom 6 finishing sides reads W9, D1 L0 and here they have won 4 games by 4 or more goals and 2 by 3 goals
Brighton’s record away to Top 6 finishing sides reads a very poor W0, D1, L9 and they have lost just 1 of the 10 games by 4 or more goals, whilst losing 1 by 3 goals.
When we look at how Top 6 finishing sides have played at home in the first 6 games of the season when hosting Bottom finishing sides the record reads. Played 51, Won 42, Drawn 7, Lost 2.
Only 10 (20%) of these 51 matches the home side won by 4 or more goals. Winning 11 by 3 goals
In the previous 2 head to heads at the Etihad, City have won by 2 goals on both occassions.
My ratings are suggesting some small value backing Brighton.
Despite their poor away record Brighton have only lost 2 away to Top 6 finishing sides by 3 or more goals and historically the away side look good value +2.75 goals
Back Brighton +2.75 Goals @ 2.00
This means that should City win by 4 or more goals you lose your whole stake. If City win by 3 goals you lose half of your stake. If Brighton win, draw or only lose by 2 or less goals your bet wins.
Milan v Brescia – Saturday 1500 BST
Milan’s home record to promoted sides reads a very positive Won 8, Draw 1, Lost 1
It should also be noted that Milan have won 4 of their victories at home to promoted sides by 2 or more goals.
When we look at how promoted sides have played away in the first 6 games of the season when visiting Top 6 finishing sides the record reads. Played 24, Won 1, Drawn 3 Lost 20. In these matches 17 of the 24 matches were won by 2 or more goals
Here the stats are certainly historically favouring the home side. My ratings suggest the game is priced correctly.
However historically everything points to the home side winning this match which makes the risk v reward worth taking on
Back Milan -1 @ 1.79
This means for your bet to win Milan have to win by 2 or more goals. Should Milan win by a single goal then you get your stake returned. Should the game end with a draw or a Brescia victory then you lose all of your stake.
This Season 5 Bets. 3 Wins, 1 Push, 1 Loss +1.92 Pts
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