Kerber v Williams – This is the third time on the trot these two have met in a Grand Slam final with Kerber taking the 2016 Australian Open in 3 sets and Serena winning Wimbledon in the same year in straight sets with two late breaks. In fact, straight sets seems to be a common theme in the ladies final here at SW19.
2017 – 7-5, 6-0 (18 games)
2016 – 7-5, 6-3 (21 games)
2015 – 6-4, 6-4 (20 games)
2014 – 6-3, 6-0 (15 games)
2013 – 6-1, 6-4 (17 games)
2012 – 6-1, 5-7, 6-2 (27 games)
2011 – 6-3, 6-4 (19 games)
2010 – 6-3, 6-3 (18 games)
Only once since 2010 has it gone the distance and over 20 games has only been breached twice with one push in the last eight years.
Kerber has made her way to the final by dispatching the younger brigade, only dropping one set along the way in Round 2 against last year’s Wimbledon Junior champion Claire Liu. For me, she has been particularly impressive against both Osaka & Ostapenko who are both huge strikers of the ball, this does not bode well for Serena as when Kerber is in wall mode she is extremely difficult to break down. This tournament Kerber has averaged 68% of first serves in and very impressively, won over half of her second serve points, she also arrives into the final with a +30 winners to unforced error differential.
Serena has had a very shall we say favourable draw, only meeting a solitary seed in the semi-final and only really being tested in the quarter-final by an excellent display from Giorgi. She has only dropped one set en-route (against Giorgi) and to my eye produced her most devastating performance in the semi-final where she destroyed Goerges, so like all good thoroughbreds she is coming to the boil at the right moment. This tournament Williams has been decent with her first serve getting an average of 64% serves in and winning 80% of points from it, she has also won an average of 51% second serve points and her winners to unforced error differential is at a stunning +53.
So, who’s going to win? For me, the serve is the key, if Kerber keeps up a high first serve percentage she can keep this match close and put pressure on the American BUT if Serena serves well, I don’t think there will be a lot Kerber can do as she will have to do more than just keep returning and hoping Serena beats herself through unforced errors(this is not going to happen), the German will have to take some risks and this is not her natural game as if she starts spraying errors she will get down on herself quickly and start to implode.
I can see Serena getting this done in 2 sets and the best bet for me is over 9.5 games in set 1 at 1.95 or even over 10.5 games at 3.85
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