I just thought I would update members to where we are at with some new strategies that we have in the pipeline.
I was a little perturbed to see that some of the members were backing First Half Goals in the Automation – if you go ahead with this line you might get some blow back as it is a strategy that can be selected through the automation app. I would say early testing showed very positive results but subsequently it went on a bad run and some members took the early results and used bigger stakes than should have done for an unproven strategy over the longer term.
Another strategy that has been very much treading water over the past 6 months is the Second Half Overs strategy. This is where we enter when the price hits 1.60 before 70 minutes.
Initially the strategy was devised to highlight those games where a second half goal was most likely. We are still hitting the required percentage for the second half goal. However for some reason we are seeing a lot of early goals where the price does not hit 1.60.
We are still in discussion as how best to play this going forward and we may tweak it slightly or give an alternative.
Now here you will find an Excel spreadsheet showing several strategies that we are both current and a couple that we are currently Beta testing and the spreadsheet can be downloaded HERE
UNDERS STRATEGY
Firstly we have the Unders strategy and this is based at Half Time where there is at least 15% value in backing under 2 goals ahead when comparing the stats to current Betfair price.
Now for many this goes against the grain because as bettors and traders we are conditioned to look to bet on goals being scored. In my opinion the value is normally to be found on the other side. Where you are going against the crowd.
So we started Beta testing the strategy on 23rd May 20 and the strategy went live on the 12th of September.
What I like about this strategy is that you are laying an odds-on selection. So you are always looking to win more than you are risking.
If we combine the results from the Beta testing to the strategy going live. We have had 329 selections where we have staked 241.65 points. So the average Lay Price is 1.73 and the Profit is 27.22 pts which equates to a 11.26% Return on Investment.
The biggest downturn was 6.33 pts
Interestingly the results are even better when you just lay those games where there has been an early home (0-10 Minutes) or early away goal (0-20 Minutes).
Here there have been 123 selections where we have staked 92.65 points. So the average Lay Price is 1.75 and the profit is 19.80 pts which equates to a 21.37% Return on Investment.
The biggest downturn was 5.43 pts
NO FURTHER GOALS ON 75 MINUTES
The next two unders strategies that we look to Beta test is in the games that have had a Very early Home Goal (0-5 minutes) and the games that have had a very Early Away Goal (0-10 Minutes).
Here we are looking to back NO further goals on 75 minutes. Now normally there are some very good opportunities looking for goals in the Early Home and Away games, but Stephen has managed to filter the data to find the following.
In the Early Home Goals strategy there have been 264 selections which gave a return of 27.16 pts and a 10.28% Return on Investment.
The biggest turn down has been 10.64 points.
In the Early Away Goals strategy there have been 229 selections which gave a return of 35.57 pts and a 15.53% Return on Investment.
The biggest turn down has been 8.43 points.
If we combine the Two strategies there have been 493 selections which gave a return of 62.73 pts and a 12.72% Return on Investment.
The biggest turn down has been 11.42 points.
All the above looks very promising and Stephen is going to carry on Beta testing this strategy over the next month or so.
BACKING 2 GOALS AHEAD STRATEGY
Finally I would like to thank Brian (Goal Gypsy) who with the help of Stephen have come up with a strategy that looks for a further 2 second half goals. Brian initially looked at a strategy that looked for a goal before 70 minutes and Stephen has looked through the database and found that by eliminating a couple of score lines backing 2 goals ahead was the most profitable route.
This has so far given 217 selections with a return of +42.43 Pts and a 19.55% Return on Investment.
Again this is very encouraging and after further testing we hope to be able to release this to members over the next month or so.
It should be noted that all the new strategies can be automated. Unfortunately, the Half Time Unders Strategy cannot be automated as you are chasing a price that is moving in your direction.
SUMMARY
I want all the members to know that we spend an awful long time looking and developing these strategies. I have looked at the football and sports markets every day for the last 10/15 years and Jonny looks at the Game State to the point of obsession. Stephen also is constantly analysing the database for opportunities. Whilst Matts knowledge of the Tennis markets are second to none.
It is our goal to present you with strategies that you will not find anywhere else. If you look over Twitter or various services you will find that very few go against the crowd and we are always looking to do this. Nearly everyone on Social Media is looking for goals so it makes sense that the value lies on the other side. We will always look to be innovative and leaders in this field.
Unfortunately we do have some members who question these strategies and indeed some have made comments such as “I always back Overs in the Unders selections” To me this is complete stupidity when the evidence is presented to you in these spreadsheets. The real reason of course is that this person is conditioned to look for goals and/or does not have the mentality to follow a strategy through.
Now are you going to have downturns where you lose money? Off course you are.
No system is ever going to run completely smoothly and indeed as you can see from the above each system had its downturn
The reality is if you are not correctly capitalised so that you can endure these downturns then the reality is you should not be betting.
Here at Trade on sports all our strategies are based on the facts and long-term proof. None of this is based on unresearched short term hunches.
Over the next week or so I will be updating the strategies members should be following to get the most out of this service. I would strongly advise that if you are inexperienced that you do not deviate from this list.
Finally all these strategies along with the terminology can become confusing to those less experienced. Please note that at the end of the day we are here to help you. We care very much about your progression and your experience as a member. If you do have any questions no matter how silly you believe the question to be please ask.
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