The numbers told one story. Spain’s expected goals came in at 2.08; Belgium’s at 0.38. Yet for 88 minutes it looked like the lesser team might steal this one. Then Mikel Merino came off the bench, and what happened next was settled in one minute and 57 seconds.
In a FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-final in Miami, Spain were the better side for large stretches but couldn’t shake Belgium until the very end. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring in the first half, but Belgium found their way back when Charles De Ketelaere levelled just before half-time in the 41st minute. With Thibaut Courtois already forced off through injury and backup goalkeeper Senne Lammens holding Belgium together, the match looked destined for extra time.
Then Mikel Merino appeared. Lammens, who had performed well enough up to that point, spilled a shot from Pau Cubarsi. Merino read the rebound and put it away. One minute and 57 seconds after coming on. An 88th-minute winner. Spain are in the semi-finals.
Key moments
Fabián Ruiz opens the scoring (first half): Spain’s technical midfielder put them ahead, maintaining the control the xG numbers reflected.
De Ketelaere equalises, 41′: The Real Madrid forward held his composure to level just before the break. With Courtois already gone, Belgium had rallied around Lammens and found an unlikely foothold.
Courtois injury: This was the story behind the story. Belgium’s goalkeeper, one of the best in the world at his peak, was forced off in the first half. What that cost Belgium in decision-making at set-pieces and crosses is unknowable. What it led to in the 88th minute is not.
Merino, 1:57 off the bench: The substitute read the rebound from Cubarsi’s shot perfectly. Lammens had spilled it. Merino was in the right place at the right moment. Spain 2-1. Done.
What it means
The xG tells you this was not the injustice it might have appeared in the 87th minute. Spain generated 2.08 expected goals against Belgium’s 0.38. Belgium were making the most of Courtois’s absence and De Ketelaere’s individual quality. The base numbers suggested Spain were doing most of what they needed to; they just needed one more. Merino provided it.
Spain advance to the World Cup semi-finals. They will face France, who beat Morocco 2-0 on Thursday. Two of Europe’s most organised squads, two of the tournament’s best defensive records, in a semi-final that looks like a de facto continental showdown.
For Belgium, the wait for a first World Cup title goes on. They showed enough resilience here to earn some credit. A full-strength Courtois over 90 minutes may have changed the shape of the second half. We will never know.
Looking ahead
Spain vs France is the confirmed WC2026 semi-final on the European side of the draw. The other semi-final (England vs Norway and Argentina vs Switzerland) will conclude the last-four picture.
Belgium’s tournament is over.
No comment