Portugal vs Wales kicks off at 7:45pm BST on Thursday at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, and two stories sit on top of it. It is Jorge Jesus’s first match as Portugal manager, with Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, in the squad. Wales have gone four games without a win, open their Nations League campaign against the holders and will be without their preferred centre-back pairing.
What is at stake
League A of the 2026-27 Nations League is four groups of four, with six matches each between 24 September and 17 November. Group 4 holds Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales. The top two go through to the quarter-finals in March 2027. Third place plays a relegation play-off against a League B side, and last place goes down automatically.
At time of writing nobody has played, so all four teams sit on 0 played and 0 points. The table gives no edge yet; the format tells us what each side is chasing. Portugal are the holders, having beaten Spain 5-3 on penalties in the 2025 final after a 2-2 draw, and they need a top-two finish to stay in the title race. Wales’ practical first target is to stay clear of last place and the play-off spot, with a top-two finish as the stretch.
Portugal are the home side, and this is not a neutral venue. Alvalade is the home of Sporting and holds 52,000.
Team snapshots
Portugal’s last five matches were all at the World Cup. They drew 1-1 with DR Congo on 17 June, beat Uzbekistan 5-0 on 23 June, drew 0-0 with Colombia on 27 June, beat Croatia 2-1 in the round of 32 on 2 July and lost 1-0 to Spain in the round of 16 on 6 July. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat, with eight goals scored and three conceded. The Spain goal came from Mikel Merino in stoppage time.
Jesus replaced Roberto Martínez after that exit, so this is the first game of a new reign.
Wales’ last five read: a 7-1 win over North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying on 18 November, a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup play-off semi-final on 26 March (Bosnia won 4-2 on penalties after extra time), a 1-1 draw with Northern Ireland on 31 March, a 1-1 draw with Ghana on 2 June and a 2-1 defeat by Romania on 6 June. One win, three draws and one defeat, with 11 goals scored and six conceded.
The pattern is easy to read. Wales have scored in each of the five, and conceded in each of the five.
Team news
Portugal: Jesus named a first squad last week and kept Ronaldo, with the message that selection depends on form. Four players are new since the World Cup: goalkeeper Samuel Soares, left-back Nuno Tavares, midfielder João Palhinha and forward Fábio Silva. Matheus Nunes and Nelson Semedo are out of the group.
Wales: Bellamy named 28 players on 15 September. Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor are injured, which removes the centre-back pairing Bellamy has preferred. Harry Wilson and Jordan James return after missing June’s friendlies through injury, and Cian Ashford, 21, has a first senior call-up after scoring twice at the start of Cardiff City’s Championship season.
Confirmed line-ups are not yet published.
Key players
Portugal: Ronaldo scored twice in the 5-0 win over Uzbekistan and a penalty against Croatia, and Jesus has said Ronaldo plays on form like anyone else, so the team sheet is the first thing to check. João Neves headed the goal against DR Congo. Gonçalo Ramos scored the stoppage-time winner against Croatia.
Wales: Wilson scored a hat-trick in the 7-1 win over North Macedonia, and the return from injury is the best piece of team news for Wales. Dan James put Wales ahead early in the second half against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Jordan James is back in the squad after the same injury absence.
Head-to-head
The one meeting we can source is the Euro 2016 semi-final in Lyon, which Portugal won 2-0. Ronaldo scored on 50 minutes and Nani added a second on 53.
Tactical notes
Portugal should have the ball for most of the game; Wales will look for a way to stay compact and hit them on the break or from set pieces. That is a reading of the two squads, not a stat. What the numbers do say is that Portugal failed to score in two of their last five, against Colombia and Spain. Wales’ concern sits at the other end: they have conceded in every one of their last five, and now they are short of their preferred central defenders.
The counterpoint is that Wales have scored in each of their last five and have drawn three of them, so they have been hard to put away.
Three things to watch
- Jesus’s first XI. Whether Ronaldo starts, and how Jesus uses the four new faces, will be the first read on the new regime.
- Wales without Rodon and Lawlor. Bellamy has to find a central pairing against Ronaldo, Neves and Ramos.
- Wilson and Jordan James after injury. Both missed June, so how much they play is the question. Wales have scored in each of their last five games.
Our lean
Portugal are the more likely winners. They are at home, they are the holders, and Wales are without their preferred centre-back pairing. The caution is that a new manager’s first match is an unknown, Portugal were held scoreless in two of their last five, and Wales have scored in each of theirs. A narrow Portugal win is a realistic outcome, and so is a draw. Treat this as a probability, not a certainty.
Both sides are back in action on Sunday 27 September: Portugal go to Norway and Wales go to Denmark.
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