The Question Ryan Moore Just Answered
In a stable that runs four horses in Sunday’s race, the most informative piece of information available is where Ryan Moore is sitting. Aidan O’Brien’s stable jockey has chosen Benvenuto Cellini. Not Christmas Day, who won the Epsom Derby last month [Thoroughbred Daily News, this run].
This is not a casual booking. Moore and O’Brien’s collaboration covers decades and multiple Classic winners. When Moore goes to a horse that was not even at Epsom over the horse that won it, that says something about the stable’s private opinion of which one is better.
Benvenuto Cellini’s absence from Epsom was controversial. The colt got a hind leg caught on the shelf of the starting stalls and was declared a non-runner. He arrives at The Curragh with his reputation intact, his form figures from before Epsom strong, and the stable’s top jockey on his back.
Christmas Day: The Epsom Derby Winner Faces a New Challenge
Christmas Day won the Betfred Derby at Epsom in June [Thoroughbred Daily News, this run]. That is the benchmark Classic result of the European Flat season. Ronan Whelan takes the ride at The Curragh, meaning this is a two-horse O’Brien stable in terms of market positioning: Moore on Benvenuto Cellini, Whelan on the Derby winner.
The mile and four furlongs at The Curragh is a different surface to Epsom’s switchback course. Christmas Day will need to handle the open, flat nature of The Curragh and produce the same quality he showed at Epsom. His form figures (11-131) show consistent winning, with three of his four starts before Epsom resulting in victories, and a Derby winner arriving with fresh legs from three weeks’ rest is exactly what Group 1 racing demands.
Raaheeb: The Unbeaten Outsider Who Chose This Race
Owen Burrows’ Raaheeb has won both of his career starts [Sporting Life, this run]. His connections made a deliberate decision to bypass Epsom and come here fresh. The form figures (1-1) are simple: unbeaten, with the Sandown Classic Trial as his Group-level qualifier.
Horses who target a Classic fresh rather than following the Derby trail carry an element of unknown. They have not been tested against the best in the Classic crop. They also arrive without the miles on the clock. Raaheeb is the wild card in the classic sense: the horse with less data and more upside.
James J Braddock: The Epsom Placed Runner
James J Braddock finished 3rd in the Betfred Derby . Joseph O’Brien’s raider brings Dylan Browne McMonagle to the plate, and DBM is in form: he won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at this track earlier today on Thundering On. A jockey in that kind of form on a proven Classic-placed horse is a combination that cannot be dismissed.
The Rest of the Field
Bunyola Bay (Richard Hannon / Sean Levey) has won his last two starts. He represents the British challenge alongside Raaheeb and James J Braddock. Pierre Bonnard and Action, both from O’Brien’s stable, have form figures that suggest they are pacemakers or outsiders in this context rather than major threats for the places. Shaihaan, trained by Donnacha O’Brien, finished 3rd most recently.
The Going
Good to Firm. The Curragh’s flat, galloping track over a mile and four furlongs on this surface is a thorough test of stamina and class. There is nowhere to hide on a track like this.
What to Look For
The Ryan Moore booking on Benvenuto Cellini is the single most compelling piece of evidence going into post time. The Epsom Derby winner Christmas Day is the form horse. Raaheeb is the unbeaten wild card targeting this race from day one. James J Braddock is the most recent placed form from Epsom.
This is a race where the result is genuinely open: four horses with credible claims, each arriving via a different route to The Curragh. That is what a proper European Classic should look like.
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