On Saturday we launched our In-Play football App and Trade on Football service and I put the following screenshot on Social media (Click to Enlarge)
This bought about the following response and question.
‘Can I just clarify this? is your model saying that Spurs 1-0 up are 1.35 to win the match with an hour to go versus Huddersfield?’
Here I thought I would go through the thought process and logic a user of the app would be looking at and here we are using the Spurs v Huddersfield match as an example.
If we look at the screenshot the app is saying that after 32 minutes and with the first goal being scored in the 27th minute Spurs are beating Huddersfield 1-0.
As we can see by the League position it is 4th v 14th
If we look at the Match odds on Betfair. Spurs are 1.05 to win the game which equates to a 95% chance of winning (1 divided by 1.05 multiplied by 100)
However, our odds are suggesting that Spurs should only be a 1.38 (72%) chance of winning.
The column TSS gives us the Total Sample Size. In this case it is saying after 32 mins and a home team have taken the lead in the 21/30 min period. In 131 matches the home team have won in 72% of the games.
Now the question here is should I lay Spurs?
Well it should be remembered that here the stats are not team specific. In the 131 matches the home team went onto win 95 of the games.
When viewing the 36 matches where the home side did not win the game. A top 6 side playing lesser opposition only failed to win in 6 matches. In the case of Spurs, they won all 4 matches they were involved in at the game state of winning 1-0 after 32 minutes with the opening goal being scored in the 21/30-minute period.
So here taking on Spurs is something you would not really consider.
However, when the game reaches Half Time and it is still 1-0. Then 70% (52) of the 74 matches finished with 2 or less goals. This was regardless of any perceived advantage / superiority.
Indeed, if we take this further and look at the 70th minute with Spurs now 2-0 up scoring the opening goal in the 21/30-minute window. Then although the sample is only 22. 14 (64%) of these games finished with 2 or less goals and under 2.5 goals was offered at 2.75 on Betfair.
On 79 minutes the sample size went down to 20 and16 (80%) of these games still finished with 2 or less goals and at this stage of the game Under 2.5 goals was offered at 2.20 on Betfair.
The above scenario presents a great trading opportunity. Especially if you are watching the game live.
So, in conclusion it would not be wise to just back everything that the App highlights as value and instead you should use the stats facility on the app to drill down further before committing to a trading / betting decision.
Should you be unsure you can also put any thoughts forward in our Skype room where are members can put forward their own thoughts and opinions.
If you would like to join the Trade on Football service then register your interest HERE
The Trade on Sports 2018 prospectus can also be found HERE