The Trade on Sports Pre-match Bets as part of the Gold application has now been running for a few weeks now and during this time Stephen has interrogated the data base and here we present a number of strategies.
As explained in the video here https://youtu.be/6vtfHskQC1k Where it indicates value in the League and both teams involved then that gives out the bet. For example, Back Home, Lay Away etc.
Where a bet is indicated this then goes to the TOS GOLD FL BB DATA telegram room 5 minutes before the game begins.
Obviously, you can look for these bets through the application first thing in the morning and then place the bet. However, there are a number of disadvantages in doing this especially if you are looking to back or Lay in markets offering poor liquidity.
Indeed, last week I made a Lay bet of the Away side first thing in the morning and when the game kicked off the odds of the selection had changed dramatically, and the bet was now a Lay of the home side.
Also, by just placing your bets in the morning you could miss out on bets that appear during the day due to odds movement.
Having said the above, on one of the strategies presented I have placed most of my bets in the morning. However, given the past few weeks observations I would suggest leaving the placing of the bets to as close to the kick off as possible.
Before we look at the strategies I just want to touch on the staking. The strategies devised by Stephen show the results of Laying to 1pt so if you lay at 3.0 then you are risking 2 points. If you lay to a 1pt liability, then you are risking 0.5 pts.
My belief is if you are new to this it may be best to just risk 1pt per bet. If you are laying between odds of 3.0 and 7.0 and you have 2 or 3 losers on the bounce or suffer a poor run this can affect your confidence dramatically.
Obviously if you are an experienced bettor/trader and understand the risks involved then by all means lay to 1pt. However, do note by the graphs the losing runs.
The main goal of trade on sports is to encourage members to protect their capital as best you can and then hopefully through time turn you into a profitable trader/bettor.
First let us look at the strategies and the rules
To look at the results download the excel spreadsheet HERE
STRAT 1
HOME LAY
Must show over 30 pts profit (Fav Label Best Best Pts)
The lay odds of the Home side are less than 3.00
The game must not be Supercompetitive
This has shown 32.99 pts profit over 648 matches
Maximum downturn is around 16 pts laying to 1 point
STRAT 2
AWAY LAY
Must show over 40 pts profit
The lay odds of the away side is less than 7.00
The Game must be Home Small Favourite or Home Strong Favourite
This has shown 125.68 pts profit over 1663 matches
Maximum downturn is around 42 pts laying to 1 point.
STRAT 3
LAY DRAW AT START
Must show over 30 pts profit
The lay odds of the draw are less than 6.00
The Game must be Away Small Favourite / Away Strong Favourite & Super Competitive
This has shown 91.84 pts profit over 865 matches
Maximum downturn is around 24 pts laying to 1 point.
STRAT 4
LAY 0-0 DRAW AT HALF TIME @ BACK PRICE
Must show over 30 pts profit
Favlabel: Away Small Favourite , Away_Medium Favourite , Away_Strong Favourite
This has shown 73.86 pts profit over 344 matches
Maximum downturn is around 12 pts laying to 1 point.
*** Please note for this strat 4 and strat 5 we had trouble loading the HT data so we took the score and odds at 40 mins for the back test. We also assume you ask for the back price at HT instead of taking the available lay price
STRAT 5
LAY 1-1 DRAW AT HALF TIME @ BACK PRICE
Must show over 30 pts profit
Favlabel: Away_Small Favourite, Away_Medium Favourite, Away_Strong Favourite , Home_Medium Favourite
This has shown 37.08 pts profit over 214 matches
Maximum downturn is around 20 pts laying to 1 point.
STRAT 6
AWAY LAY OVER 80pts
Must show over 80 pts profit
The lay odds of the away side are less than 7.00
All Matches
This has shown 33.60 pts profit over 63 matches
Maximum downturn is around 10 pts laying to 1 point.
Observations
Finally, I would just like to make some observations.
Keeping a balanced portfolio is important so you may want to combine a few of these strategies.
Personally, I like the home lay and the lay of the draw.
For those who have the time and can back in play the results of the 0-0 Half time and 1-1 when you are looking to lay at the back price also looks very promising. I would advise that you look at potential games first thing in the morning.
As for the Lay away at over 80pts the results since I started recording at the beginning of March have been staggering so we may be due a correction.
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