Bengals vs. Rams: Super Bowl LVI Betting Preview
If we cast our minds back to the start of the play-offs, then this is one of the most surprising Super Bowl matchups in history. This is the first EVER Super Bowl where both teams were seeded fourth or lower. Also, over the regular season, the Rams and the Bengals combined win/loss records was 22-12, which makes this the worst ever combined win-loss record in Super Bowl history.
Now, the Rams are the stronger team over EVERY metric and they should really win, it doesn’t mean they will win but I cant back against them given this fact.
Throughout the regular season the Bengals were not a strong unit, yes they have gone on a roll in the play-offs, and yes they have a generational quarterback and the best wide receiving prospect since Randy Moss but if we analyse how they got here it looks a little like this, their two divisional powerhouse rivals (Ravens & Browns) simultaneously collapsed handing the Bengals the division title, then in the championship game the conference powerhouse (Chiefs) unexplainably self-destructs just as they are about to take a 28-10 lead. The Bengals have had more than their fair share of luck it seems.
The Rams have adopted a win now attitude, making some blockbuster trades that puts them into Superbowl contention this year and next year, after that it could get ugly in LA as they have traded everything away for this moment now.
This sort of dream-team scenario is tactically perilous long term as you ditch all your draft picks and long-term success plans for the thrill of going all in by grabbing some big-name free agents to try and “buy” a championship. In my opinion trading for Stafford, Beckham, Ramsey & Von Miller was quite possibly the right thing to do for this organisation, they reached the Superbowl three years ago and have stumbled along ever since, so they really needed to either tear it all up or do this, and like I said earlier, this puts them in contention over the next two years in a similar sort of fashion that the Buccaneers did when they risked it all on Brady, Gronk & co, two years ago.
The Bengals passing attack has improved
Let’s start to look at the respective units of the teams. The Bengals passing attack has improved dramatically from week 12 up until now. But the Rams defence has also significantly improved over the second half of the season and is looking particularly strong coming into the Superbowl as they rank first at pass rush and eighth in sack rate.
This is a HUGE worry for the Bengals as their weakest unit is their offensive line and the Rams will almost certainly be able to generate pressure on Burrows. To mitigate this the Bengals will need to keep their three wide receivers on the field as much as possible, this will limit the numbers the Rams can rush with as they will have to play a nickel or dime defence to guard all the wide out threats the Bengals bring.
For the Bengals to constantly move the sticks I’d suggest Burrows makes quick reads and hits the right receiver almost every time, this may work for a while but he’s bound to be hurried into some errors at some point as the match plays out. When the Bengals look to play to their strength, i.e. Passing to the outside or slot receivers, we see this is the Rams strength as they have Ramsey & Williams waiting and both of these have allowed less than 6 yards per pass over the course of the season.
We must also bear in mind that the Bengals receivers could be overrated as they faced the weakest schedule of opposing pass defences this season. They have faced NOTHING of the calibre they will face on Sunday.
If we look at the Bengals running game then we see it isn’t something they do a lot of, they are far more efficient when passing the ball, anyway the Rams second ranked run defence is more than capable of stopping anything the Bengals try to do on the ground.
Rams Passing game has been good
The Rams passing game has been very good for most of the season, they had a bit of a let-down towards the end of the regular season but have bounced back well in the play-offs. Their running game isn’t anything to talk about ranking in the middle of the pack all season. The Bengals defence is playing better in the post season but it wasn’t very good in the regular season so any improvement is a bonus.
Stafford likes to throw a deep ball and the Bengals rank 25th in deep ball coverage, so there is a mismatch there but we also must take into account that the Rams QB does like to throw a pick every now and then. Like the Bengals the Rams have an elite receiving trio in Kupp, Beckham & Van Jefferson. Unlike the Rams the Bengals only have one decent safety in Awuzie, he will have to cover Kupp, so who covers Beckham & Van Jefferson as they have no linebackers who are competent in pass coverage.
Can the Bengals get to Stafford
The next question is, can the Bengals get to Stafford? The Rams do have a very good offensive line and the Bengals ranked 25th in pressure rate throughout the season, once more this isn’t a good matchup and the Bengals pass rush isn’t likely to be disrupting much. Stafford should have time to find his receivers.
The Rams have been awful at running the ball in the play-offs, a lot of that is to do with Cam Akers who has been playing through a hamstring injury. He just can’t generate the power to break tackles. All in all, both teams’ respective units are average in this department bar one glaring stat, the Bengals are last in the NFL at tackling, they allowed 143 broken tackles over the course of the season.
Both of these teams have strong kickers but McPherson has been outstanding this season kicking 12 from 14 field goals from over 50 yards, look out for odds on longest field goal scored and back the Bengals here.
Summary
As I mentioned at the start of this preview, the Rams are clearly the better team and this looks like a mismatch, not a huge mismatch but a mismatch all the same. Of course, the Rams can lose this game but they’d really have to shoot themselves in the foot multiple times to do so (Stafford throwing multiple pick 6’s), as well as the Bengals defence stepping up as a unit and having a one-off outstanding game.
BETS
Same Game Double – Rams -2.5 & OVER 44.5 points @ 2.50
Rams First quarter handicap -0.5 @ 2.00
Bengals to score the longest field goal @ 1.95
Joe Burrow UNDER 281.5 passing yards @ 1.90
Special team or Defensive Touchdown Scored – YES @ 3.15
Total Sacks – OVER 5.5 @ 2.05
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