SUPERBOWL LIX
Well the big game is upon us and as we are already on the Eagles at 14.0 from the pre-season, I thought we could look at some props for the game.
If you missed the pre-season bet on the Eagles then feel free to back them at just over even money (2.01) as I believe that they are the better team. This will be the best defence that Mahomes and Kansas have faced all year and when the Chiefs have actually faced a top 5 defence this season they have been held to an average of 4.7 yards a play. As a comparison a team like the Giants only averaged 4.7 yards per play against top 5 defences.
I rate the Eagles defence as one of the best ever (top 10 at the very worst), and at least on a par with the Temple of Boom and Seattle’s legendary Superbowl winning defence. Their co-ordinator (Vic Fangio) knows how to stop Kansas as proved in Superbowl LVII when he held Mahomes to 182 yards. Also, while we’re speaking about defences, the Kansas defence isn’t what it used to be. Top 5 last year allowing 4.8 yards per carry down to 5.4 yards per carry this season. When I was watching the conference championship game between the Chiefs and the Bills, I noticed James Cook the Bills running back was running for 6.5 yards per carry, so how can we expect this defence to stop Saquon Barkley? To put things into perspective Barkley has faced a top 10 run defence 4 times this season and has an average of 105 yards per game, it seems very likely that no defence can stuff him at the line or shut him down.
Kansas also like to blitz a lot (ranked 4th in the NFL) and Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the most blitzed quarterbacks in the league, so what will the Chiefs play behind their blitzes? If we look at the season stats then they played man coverage almost three quarters of the time behind their blitzes……………and man coverage isn’t what you want to do against the Eagles as Hurts scrambles for 9.4 yards per carry and has a 64% success rate. This could play right into the Eagles hands and needs to be watched in the opening salvos of the match.
I’m not saying the Chiefs have no chance
Now I’m not saying the Chiefs have no chance as only a fool would write off Reid, Mahomes and crew in winner takes all football matches but in reality, Kansas doesn’t play teams of the calibre of the Eagles too many times a season as they walk their division have a bye in the first round of the play-offs then a relatively easy match-up in the divisional round. If we look at teams that historically just lose to the Chiefs we see they more often than not shoot themselves in the foot or suffer some horrendous bounce of the ball that goes the way of Kansas.
The Eagles are built on solid foundations they usually do not need any luck or having to rely on their quarterback to perform some heroics with 45 seconds left, they are a solid well-rounded unit and if their defence holds up against Mahomes which I think it will then they can after another close fought battle lift the trophy on Sunday night. You’d also like to think that the Kansas defensive co-ordinator (Steve Spagnuolo) can at the very least slow down the Eagles offence with his trickery and schemes and this brings the under into play, it currently sits at UNDER 48.5 @ 1.90.
Player prop wise, I like the Eagles edge rusher Nolan Smith to have a big game as he goes up against the Chiefs weakest link in right tackle Jawaan Taylor. You can back him to record OVER 2.5 tackles @ 2.05 & to record a sack @ 2.00
The Eagles are also very strong against tight ends, so Kelce could be marked out of the game, I’ve backed UNDER 61.5 receiving yards @ 1.95.
Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs could have a big game though, as the weakest link in the Eagles defence is the cornerbacks, so I’m looking at him going OVER his receiving yards total of 60 @ 2.15.
The Chiefs are horrendous at defending the slot (ranked 32nd of 32 in the NFL this season), so DeVonta Smith could possibly have a huge game and I’m backing him to go OVER his receiving total of 60 yards @ 2.30 and to score a touchdown @ 3.30
So all in all we have the following bets for Superbowl Sunday.
If you backed the Eagles pre-season then don’t back them again on the moneyline here.
Philadelphia Eagles MONEYLINE @ 2.01
UNDER 48.5 POINTS @ 1.90
DeVonta Smith OVER 60 receiving yards @ 2.30
DeVonta Smith to score a touchdown @ 3.30
Xavier Worthy OVER 60 receiving yards @ 2.15
Travis Kelce UNDER 61.5 receiving yards @ 1.95
Nolan Smith OVER 2.5 tackles @ 2.05
Nolan Smith to record a sack @ 2.00
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