There have been all-English European finals before. Whether or not we get one this May depends on what happens at Villa Park on Thursday night.
Nottingham Forest edged Aston Villa 1-0 in the first leg at the City Ground on 30 April, Chris Wood converting from the penalty spot after VAR confirmed a handball by Lucas Digne. A single goal separates these two clubs from a Europa League final in Istanbul. For Villa, the equation is simple on paper and brutal in practice: win, or go home.
The format, and what Villa actually need
There is no away goals rule. If the second leg finishes 1-0 to Villa on the night, the tie goes to extra time. A 2-0 or better, and Villa are through in 90 minutes. Forest only need to avoid being beaten by more than one goal to reach Istanbul without the lottery of penalties.
That context matters because it shapes how both sides will approach Thursday. Villa must attack. Forest, for all their Europa League ambition this season, will not be reluctant to sit back and protect what they have.
Villa’s season in two competitions
In the Premier League, Aston Villa sit 5th with 58 points from 35 games. They remain in the hunt for a top-four finish with three matches left, but the Europa League has been their outstanding performance of 2025-26.
Unai Emery’s record in this competition is extraordinary. Four Europa League titles, three with Sevilla and one with Villarreal, make him the most decorated manager in the competition’s history. His Villa side has matched that pedigree. They finished second in the league phase with seven wins from eight, eliminated Lille 3-0 on aggregate in the round of 16, and beat Bologna 4-0 in the quarter-final.
Ollie Watkins has been at the centre of it all. His quarter-final goal against Bologna was his fourth of this UEL campaign and made him Villa’s all-time top European goalscorer. He is the player Forest cannot afford to give space to, and he will be the biggest threat if Villa find a way to open the game up.
The concern for Emery is the midfield engine. Amadou Onana was carrying a knee problem heading into the first leg, and his availability for Thursday remains uncertain. Boubacar Kamara and goalkeeper Alysson are confirmed out. Villa are not at full strength, and Forest know it.
Forest and their remarkable season
Nottingham Forest are 16th in the Premier League with 42 points from 35 games. That is a side spending much of the season scrapping to avoid relegation. Yet under Vitor Pereira, who dragged them clear of the drop zone earlier this year, Forest have been a different team in Europe.
This is their first European semi-final in 42 years. The last time they were at this stage, Brian Clough was the manager and they went on to win the whole thing. Forest fans are aware of that history. The club is too.
Their route to this point has been earned. They beat Porto 2-1 on aggregate in the quarter-final, Morgan Gibbs-White scoring the decisive goal in the second leg. And Gibbs-White has been the story of Forest’s season in both competitions: nobody has scored more Premier League goals in 2026 than the attacking midfielder, who is well into double figures since January.
Chris Wood is the other name that defines this tie. The New Zealand striker returned from a six-month knee injury to score the first-leg winner, converting his penalty with confidence and adding to what is now a career record of 28 consecutive penalties scored. A player who had not been expected to feature prominently in this run has become its match-winner.
Igor Jesus, Forest’s Brazilian striker, adds a different dimension. He is the UEL joint top scorer this season with seven goals, a constant threat in behind and box-to-box in his movement. Emiliano Martinez made an outstanding save from Jesus’ volley in the first leg. Whether he can keep him quiet for another 90 minutes is one of the key questions of the second leg.
What to expect tactically
Forest will not come to Villa Park to entertain. Vitor Pereira’s side have been unbeaten in all competitions since mid-March, and a key part of that is their defensive organisation. With a significant injury list at the back (Murillo, John Victor, Nicolo Savona and Willy Boly are all out with knee problems), Forest are stretched at centre-back, but they have shown they can manage.
Neco Williams was named player of the match in the first leg, and he and Ola Aina gave Villa’s wide players little room to breathe. If Forest can stay compact, keep Villa to the outside, and deny Watkins service, they back themselves on the counter. Gibbs-White and Jesus are capable of making anything from nothing.
Villa’s best chance comes from early pressure. A goal inside the first 20 minutes changes everything. A goalless 70 minutes and the tie, psychologically, is over.
The lean
Villa Park under the lights, 40,000 supporters, a European final at stake. That is the kind of occasion that can carry a team. But football is decided by facts, not atmosphere.
Forest lead. Forest are organised. Forest have players who can score on the break. And Vitor Pereira has managed at the highest level long enough to know exactly how to see out a tie like this.
Villa need to be near-perfect. Forest just need to be themselves.
DATA NOTE: Amadou Onana’s availability for the second leg had not been confirmed at the time of writing. Check latest team news before Thursday.
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