When using the Game State Application there are many ways of finding a value bet and indeed on Saturday 05 September 2020 the Chinese Super league game between Hebei & Shanghai SPG highlight many opportunities including an In Play Asian Handicap bet .
First let’s look at the Pre match markets.
Hebei were priced at 4.97, The draw was 4.48 and Shanghai SIPG were priced as strong favourites at 1.60.
When looking to get involved in a game the Half Time break generally gives you the time to look for the best opportunity to both research and highlight the best value bets.
First let’s look at the GSA stats from this game at HT.
The score at HT was 1-0 to Hebei with the goal scored in the 45th minute.
Now looking at the stats in this league with this Game State we have the following stats:
As you can see there have been 72 matches with this profile with the home side winning 60. There have been 10 Draws and only 2 Away wins
Now Jonny Grossmark in his Telegram Room highlighted the value in the next goal Hebei and as you can see from the table the home team scored next in 44 of the 72 matches. This equates to scoring next in 61% of the matches, which equates to odds of 1.64.
Hebei were priced at 3.60 to score the next goal and they duly obliged in the 90th minute.
However long term there maybe a better bet to make and that is betting on the in play Asian Handicap.
In Play Asian Handicap
At Half Time the line was Hebei +0.75 @ 1.90 & Shanghai SIPG were priced -0.75 goals at 1.95
It should be remembered that the Asian Handicap quoted is the Line AT THAT TIME & SCORELINE
So, lets look at what this means
If you back Hebei at Half Time when winning 1-0 +0.75 goals. The following scenarios come into play.
Should Hebei win the game from here you win your bet.
If the game end a draw 1-1 2-2 etc then you lose half of your stake as Shanghai would have won the second half by a single goal.
Should Shanghai go onto win the game from being 1-0 down. You would lose all your stake.
However, if we look at the stats the home side have won 60 of the 72 matches. So, if we had placed 1 pt. on +0.75 goals @ 1.90, we would have made 60 x .90 = 54 pts
10 of the 72 matches ended a draw and, in this case, you would have lost 0.5 pts for each loss which equates to – 5pts
Only 2 of the 72 matches were won by the Away side and on these occasions, you would have lost a full point -2 pts
So, in 72 matches If you had placed 1 pt. on the Asian Handicap with the home Side winning 1-0 you would be 47pts (54 – 5 – 2) up.
This equates to a 65.27 Return on Investment which is crazy value.
For years now Jonny Grossmark has been highlighting that the favourite losing 1-0 at HT very rarely win which, is naturally a massive edge
If you looked on Twitter, most Tipsters were still advising that SIPG were going to win and this even though the statistics state otherwise.
Betting on the Asian Handicaps In Play is certainly one of the best ways to play these markets. Myself & Jonny used to place bets for a syndicate and by taking this approach we were very successful.
Throughout the European League season we will be highlighting these Asian Handicap opportunities in the various Telegram rooms
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