Liverpool v Norwich: Premier League: Friday 09th August 2019: Kick off 20:00 BST
Match Line
Liverpool -2.25 Goals @ 2.08
Norwich +2.goals @ 1.87
Goal line
Over 3.25 Goals @ 1.95
Under 3.25 Goals @ 1.97
This seasons Premier League kicks off with the European Champions Liverpool hosting newly promoted Norwich at Anfield.
Jurgen Klopp’s side will be looking to go one better than last seasons 2nd place whilst survival will be the goal for the Canaries managed by Daniel Farke.
As you would expect Liverpool have an excellent record at home to promoted sides which reads W10, D0, L0
In these 10 matches Liverpool scored at least 2 goals in all 10 of the matches whilst keeping clean sheets in 7. When looking at the 2 goal handicap Liverpool cleared this in 5 of the matches, scratching in 4 whilst only winning by 1 goal in 1 game and that was when beating Burnley 2:1 in season 2016/17.
Liverpool have an outstanding recent home record where they have now gone undefeated in 40 matches and have only dropped 6 points (3 draws) in the last 25 home games. It is in defence where the biggest improvement has been seen where they have kept 17 clean sheets in these 25 games.
Indeed looking at Liverpools last 2 season home record against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league only 5 of the 20 matches saw Liverpool not win by 2 or more goals and they won by 3 or more goals in 13 of these matches.
Norwich came up as Champions last season and it is very difficult to know how they will cope with life in the Premier League, however it would be a major surprise to see them finish in the top 10.
Probably the best gauge is to see how promoted teams perform away to Top 6 finishing sides, and I have only included the first 12 games of the season. Here promoted sides have performed poorly with a W0, D5, L21 record. More importantly they have lost 17 of the 26 matches by 2 or more goals and 12 of these matches the promoted sides have lost by 3 or more goals.
When it comes to goals when facing the bottom half sides over the last 2 seasons then Liverpool have been very strong scoring 3 or more goals in 15 of the 20 matches, with both teams scoring in only 4.
When promoted sides have visited Top 6 finishing sides in the first 6 games of the season there have been 3 or more goals scored in 16 of the 26 matches, with 4 or more goals being scored in only 8. Whilst both teams have scored in 12.
With the line set at 3.25 my ratings suggest that there is value in the overs. However this could be dependent on Norwich finding the net and given Liverpool’s strong defensive record this would seem unlikely.
For my play I am sticking to the match line where Liverpool look value to cover the -2.25 goal handicap. My ratings are suggesting the line should be nearer -2.5 / 2.75. The reds have won their last 11 home games to sides that have finished in the bottom half of the table scoring 39 goals whilst conceding only 6 and 3 of those goals came in a 4-3 victory over Crystal Palace.
I envisage a comfortable night for Jurgen Klopp’s charges
Liverpool -2.25 goals @ 2.08
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