Bournemouth v Sheffield United: Premier League 10th August 2019: Kick off 15:00 BST
Match Line
Bournemouth -0.5 Goals @ 2.03
Sheffield United +0.5 goals @ 1.92
Goal line
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.89
Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.02
Saturday sees Bournemouth opening their account by hosting newly promoted Sheffield United at the Vitality Stadium.
This is now Eddie Howes 5th season in the Premier League, and over the past few seasons ‘The Cherries’ have established themselves as mid table side that have rarely shown any sign of slipping into any sort real relegation difficulty.
Bournemouth’s recent home record to newly promoted sides reads a very encouraging W7, D2, L1.
It should also be noted that they were also leading at Half Time in 7 of these matches.
When looking at my pre-season ratings my expectation is that Sheffield United will certainly have to battle if they are to stay at this level, and I am certainly expecting them to finish in the bottom 6 places.
Over the past 4 seasons Bournemouth have a very solid record at home to bottom 6 finishing sides which reads P23, W14, D4, L5.
It should be noted that 2 of the 5 losing matches came late last season against Burnley 1:3 and relegated Fulham 0:1.
Sheffield United came up from the Championship in 2nd place and manager Chris Wilder will have a tough assignment keeping the blades in the top tier.
Again as it is a while since Sheffield United graced the Premier League it is probably best to see how promoted teams perform away to Mid table finishing sides, and I have only included the first 12 games of the season.
Here promoted sides have performed poorly with a W8, D9, L24 record. When looking at these 8 victories. 2 came from Wolves, who finished 7th and 1 came from Leicester who went on to win the Premier League the following season.
GOALS
When it comes to goals when facing promoted sides over the last 4 seasons there have been 3 or more goals scored in 7 of Bournemouth 11 home games.
This trend carries on when Bournemouth host Bottom half finishing sides where 11 of the 18 matches over the past 2 seasons have again finished with Over 2.5 goals.
There is a stat that bucks this trend, as when promoted sides have visited mid table finishing sides in the first 6 matches of the season then only 18 of 41 matches have seen 3 or more goals.
Although my ratings are suggesting value backing overs the trends are pointing more to the match line.
SUMMARY
To summarise Bournemouth look value here and I would say they should be nearer -0.75 goals.
When looking at the last 5 seasons when promoted sides have visited mid table finishing sides they have only won 23 of 116 matches. With Wolves winning 5 of these matches, Newcastle winning 2 and Leicester also winning 2.
In these situations the promoted sides have lost 71 (61%) of these matches and there will be no question that Eddie Howe will have already pencilled and targeted this as a must win game.
Bournemouth -0.5 goals @ 2.02
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