Manchester United v Chelsea: Premier League 11th August 2019: Kick off 20:00 BST
Match Line
Man Uts -0.25 Goals @ 1.92
Chelsea +0.25 Goals @ 2.00
Goal line
Over 2.25 Goals @ 1.82
Under 2.25 Goals @ 2.29
Sunday sees the match of the weekend when Manchester united host Chelsea at Old Trafford.
Manchester United finished 6th after a very erratic season which saw Jose Mourinho sacked and replaced by United legend Ole Gunnar Solskjier.
On paper United possess a very strong squad of players. However many believe Solskjier will have his work cut out getting the current squad to gel. It is therefore very difficult to predict where United will finish this season.
Manchester United’s recent record at home to Top 6 finishing sides reads a very mixed W4, D3, L3 and moreover they won none of last season’s 5 matches, drawing 3 and losing 2.
However previous to last season United won 11 of their last 20 home games hosting Top 6 finishing sides.
Chelsea finished 3rd last season and they also experienced a very mixed campaign. Frank Lampard has now returned to Stamford Bridge to take over the reins and when taking the blues transfer embargo into consideration this also looks a tough managerial assignment.
Chelsea’s recent away record to Top 6 sides is poor and their record reads a less than inspiring W1, D3, L6. Indeed the blues have now lost 9 of their last 15 when visiting the elite sides.
There does look to be a very strong draw bias in this game. Especially when looking at the last 5 seasons where Top 6 finishing sides meet each other in the first 12 matches of the season.
Here in 51 matches the home side won 19, there were 18 draws with the away side winning 14. So 35% of these early season matches ended all square.
This shows a contrast when we compare these early matches to the remaining 99 games that were played between rounds 14 and 38.
Where here only 26 (26%) finished level. So the above would suggest that when the elite sides meet each other early in the season it is a very cagey ‘must not lose’ affair.
Goals
As far as the goal markets are concerned thewn the stats are very mixed. When looking at the first 12 games of the season when Top 6 finishing sides play each other then 26 of the 51 games finished with 3 or more goals.
When looking at the individual sides 6 of Man Utds last 10 home and 5 of Chelsea’s last 10 against elite sides have again seen 3 or more goals.
My ratings are suggesting the goal line is set correctly so I will avoid this market.
Summary
As previously stated there looks a strong draw bias in this game and indeed 3 of the last 5 head to head matches at Old Trafford have ended all square and the draw at 3.45 looks to offer some value.
For my bet I am going to Lay Manchester Utd for 0.8pts @ 2.25 which means you are risking 1 pt to win 0.80pts
Lay Manchester United for 0.8pts @ 2.25
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