Carlos Alcaraz will not play at the Madrid Open. Novak Djokovic will not play at the Madrid Open. Neither withdrawal is a surprise at this point, both were confirmed on Friday 17 April, but together they change the competition considerably.
This was supposed to be Alcaraz’s home tournament. He said so himself in his withdrawal statement: “Madrid is home, one of the most special places on the calendar to me, and that’s why it hurts so much not being able to play here for the second year in a row.” A right wrist injury sustained at the Barcelona Open ended his involvement before it started. He missed Madrid in 2025 as well.
Djokovic is out with a right shoulder injury, the same problem that kept him away from Miami and Monte Carlo. This is his third Madrid absence in four years.
The combined effect: the two players most likely to challenge Jannik Sinner at this level of the season have withdrawn from the same tournament. The draw has opened in front of the world number one.
What the field now looks like
Sinner is seeded first and arrives as the clear favourite. He was the favourite before the withdrawals. He is even more so now.
The revised seed order is: Sinner (1), Zverev (2), Auger-Aliassime (3), Shelton (4), de Minaur (5), Musetti (6), Medvedev (7), Bublik (8). Alcaraz’s draw position was taken by Sebastian Ofner. Djokovic’s by Adam Walton. Neither replacement changes the structural balance of the draw.
Zverev is the most credible clay-court challenger in the remaining field. He is seeded second, clay suits his game, and a Sinner-Zverev final is the most natural reading of the draw. The question is whether Zverev can beat Sinner across five sets in a major clay event at this point in the season. That is the challenge he has to answer.
Auger-Aliassime at seed three is a different kind of threat. He has the serve and the ball-striking to trouble anyone on any surface, but a Masters 1000 clay title would represent a step beyond what he has achieved so far. Same applies to Shelton (4) and de Minaur (5) — both dangerous, neither with a clay Masters title to their name.
Musetti is the most interesting outsider in the field. His game, one-handed backhand, heavy topspin, good court movement, is built for clay. He is seeded sixth. If the draw opens up for him, he is the likeliest source of a genuine upset from outside the top four seeds.
Medvedev at seven is a reminder that the draw contains real depth. He has won Grand Slams. He has beaten the best players in the world. Clay has historically been his weakest surface, but he has reached clay Masters finals before. He cannot be discounted simply because he is seventh seed.
WTA main draw — underway from today
The women’s main draw opened today, Tuesday 21 April. Paula Badosa makes her return on the Manolo Santana court in front of a Madrid home crowd, one of the narratives of the early rounds. Venus Williams is also in the draw. The full WTA field runs through to the women’s final on 3 May.
When does the ATP draw start?
The ATP main draw begins Wednesday 22 April. Qualifying finishes today. The bracket is set.
The Sinner question
The question is not whether Sinner will win the Madrid Open. Nothing in tennis is certain. The question is whether anyone left in the draw has the clay-court game, the form, and the draw luck to beat him across a best-of-five semifinal or final. With Alcaraz out and Djokovic absent, the two most plausible answers have left the tournament before it started.
Based on the draw as it stands on 21 April 2026, Sinner faces the clearest path to the title he has had in Madrid.
Information sourced from ATP Tour official site, Puntodebreak.com, Tennis.com, and Tennis365. Data correct at time of writing.
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