Saturday 8 August was supposed to be a routine step forward for two of the most dominant players in women’s tennis. By the end of the afternoon, the National Bank Open draw was unrecognisable.
Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1 and the clear tournament favourite, was beaten 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 by 16th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova. Barely two hours later, world No. 3 Jessica Pegula lost 6-3 6-3 to 15th seed Diana Shnaider. Two outsiders, the same round, the same afternoon, at IGA Stadium in Toronto.
It was the kind of day that reminds you why tennis defies prediction.
What Happened to Sabalenka
Sabalenka arrived in Toronto carrying a 25-1 hard-court record for 2026. The sole blip was the Australian Open final. She won Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami to complete the Sunshine Double, and her overall record stood at 36-6. She was not just the favourite for this tournament. She was the in-form player on the surface by a distance.
Alexandrova, ranked 19th in the world and seeded 16th in Toronto, did not wait for an invitation. She took the first set on a tiebreak. Sabalenka levelled in the second. In the third, with the match on the line, Alexandrova held her nerve and closed it out 6-4.
There was no collapse from Sabalenka. Alexandrova was simply better on the day. That distinction matters.
What Happened to Pegula
If Sabalenka’s defeat was a surprise, Pegula’s was closer to a statement. Shnaider, ranked 15th in the world, beat the world No. 3 in straight sets, 6-3 6-3. No drama, no fightback. Shnaider was dominant from start to finish.
Both results arrived on the same afternoon. Six of the top ten seeds are now gone before the quarter-finals.
What It Means for the Tournament
Of the original top four seeds, only Elena Rybakina (No. 2) and Coco Gauff (No. 4) remain in the draw.
The quarter-final line-up reflects just how open the field has become: Alexandrova meets Svitolina, Shnaider faces Swiatek, Bencic takes on Gauff, Osaka plays Rybakina. Any of those eight players can reach the final.
For Sabalenka, one defeat does not undo an exceptional season. She remains the No. 1 seed at the Cincinnati Open, where seedings were locked before Toronto. Her hard-court dominance in 2026 is real. But there will be questions about consistency at key moments.
For Pegula, the analysis is harder. She is one of the most consistent performers on the WTA tour and is still searching for a Grand Slam title. A 6-3 6-3 defeat in the round of 16 at a mandatory WTA 1000 event adds to a pattern that will be scrutinised heading into the US Open.
Looking Ahead
The quarter-finals are Monday 10 August. Semi-finals follow on Tuesday 12 August. The final is Thursday 13 August.
The Cincinnati Open, the last WTA 1000 and ATP Masters 1000 before the US Open, begins its main draw on Thursday 13 August. Both Sabalenka and Pegula are in the Cincinnati field, with the WTA seedings locked before Toronto.
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