The UCL Second Legs Are Here — Five Things to Watch as the Play-Off Round Reaches Its Climax

The first legs delivered everything you could ask for from the Champions League. A 5-2 scoreline in Istanbul. A Norwegian underdog stunning the Italian champions. A last-gasp PSG comeback in Monaco. An all-square tie that leaves everything to decide in Belgium.

Now the second legs arrive on 24 and 25 February, and the picture is considerably clearer for some clubs than others. Here is the state of play.

The Virtual Certainties

Newcastle United (6-1 up vs Qarabag)

Anthony Gordon scored four goals in Baku. The aggregate lead is 6-1. The second leg is at St James’ Park. Eddie Howe’s side would need a historically catastrophic performance to fail to progress from this position. Newcastle will effectively be using the second leg to manage fitness — their League Cup is already over, and a Premier League clash with Manchester City on 21 February adds to the scheduling pressure. Expect a controlled performance at home. Qarabag will earn respect for completing the tie competitively, but Newcastle are through.

Bayer Leverkusen (2-0 up vs Olympiacos)

Xabi Alonso’s reigning Bundesliga champions hold a clean two-goal advantage without conceding. Olympiacos travel to the BayArena needing to score twice without reply in 90 minutes to force extra time — a significant ask against a side with Leverkusen’s defensive organisation.

The High-Probability Progressors

PSG (3-2 up vs Monaco)

PSG came from two goals down at the Stade Louis II to lead through Désiré Doué’s second-half contribution. A one-goal aggregate advantage, combined with Parc des Princes home advantage in the second leg, puts PSG firmly in the driving seat. Monaco remain injury-hit — their defensive and midfield options were depleted even before the first leg. The all-Ligue 1 tie, historically unique at this stage of the competition, will likely conclude with the expected outcome. PSG are not perfect, but at home with a lead, they are difficult to eliminate.

Real Madrid (1-0 up vs Benfica)

Vinicius Jr’s goal at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica gives José Mourinho’s side the advantage heading to the Bernabéu. A single-goal aggregate margin keeps the tie alive, and Benfica will approach Madrid knowing they must score. But Mourinho’s Real Madrid at home in the European knockout rounds represent a formidable challenge, and Benfica face the prospect of attacking away from home without conceding.

The Open Tie

Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid (3-3 on aggregate)

This is the tie of the round. Three goals each from the first leg, with the second leg in Madrid. Everything remains to be decided. Diego Simeone’s Atlético have the home advantage for the critical match. Club Brugge achieved a remarkable result in Belgium, but the Metropolitano in a knockout tie — with Simeone’s side knowing they cannot rely on away goals in extra time — is an extreme test for a Belgian side.

Atlético’s defensive resilience and ability to manage knockout fixtures makes them the probable progressors, but this tie is genuinely open. The 3-3 aggregate means momentum, form, and individual moments will decide it.

The Comeback Possibilities

Atalanta (0-2 down at Dortmund)

Gasperini’s side face a two-goal deficit without an away goal to their credit after the first leg at Signal Iduna Park. They need to score twice at the Gewiss Stadium without conceding to win in 90 minutes, or score at least twice and keep it level through 90 minutes. Atalanta are European specialists — their intensity and collective pressing have undone stronger opponents than Dortmund. The Gewiss Stadium will be a cauldron. This is not over.

Dortmund, though, have the psychological advantage of a clean first-leg sheet and the knowledge that a single away goal at Bergamo effectively ends the tie in their favour.

Juventus (2-5 down at Galatasaray)

This is the mountain of the round. Juventus need to win by three goals at the Allianz Stadium, without conceding, to win in 90 minutes. Any Galatasaray goal at all in Turin means Juve need five. Victor Osimhen — six UCL league-phase goals — is the most dangerous striker in the competition at this stage. RAMS Park’s atmosphere swallowed Juve whole in the first leg. The Allianz has its own noise and history.

Juve were eliminated at this same stage last season. Thiago Motta’s side must produce one of the competition’s great comeback performances to progress. It is possible — the 2005 AC Milan comeback in the Champions League, Barca’s 6-1 vs PSG in 2017 — but it requires near-perfection.

The Nordic Giant-Killing — Bodø/Glimt vs Inter Milan (3-1 to Glimt)

When Bodø/Glimt beat Inter 3-1 in Norway, it was the result of the first-leg night — perhaps of the entire round. The Norwegian champions, playing in front of a passionate home crowd at the Aspmyra Stadion, were extraordinary. Now comes the test: can they defend a two-goal aggregate lead at the San Siro?

Simone Inzaghi’s Inter are one of the best tactical teams in Europe. They know how to build pressure, how to create chances, and how to manage European knockout ties. A 3-1 deficit at home is not insurmountable for a squad of their quality — and Inter will have the ball for large portions of the second leg at the Stadio San Siro (Giuseppe Meazza).

Bodø/Glimt need discipline, organisation, and a degree of fortune. If they hold Inter to fewer than two goals, they progress. If they score even once in Milan, Inter need five.

This is the tie most capable of producing a historic upset. It is also the one where the superior team has the clearest path to reversal.

Schedule — Second Legs

The round of 16 draw takes place Friday 27 February.

Information sourced from official UEFA communications, ESPN FC, Sky Sports, TNT Sports, and Newcastle United official club communications. First-leg results verified from multiple sources. Data correct at time of writing.