Twenty-one horses will line up in the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday afternoon. The race goes off at 15:35 BST over four miles of soft ground, with £112,540 going to the winning connections.
This is one of the last major National Hunt prizes of the season, run three weeks after Aintree’s Grand National and drawing a competitive field of chasers who have often found their form later in the campaign.
The Going
Soft, good to soft in places, with further rain forecast before the 15:35 start time. The conditions favour horses with proven stamina and those who handle a testing surface. Front-running types and horses who lack the physical scope to gallop through soft ground are at a disadvantage in a race of this length.
The Market
Kim Roque heads the ante-post market at 5/1 for trainer Joseph O’Brien and jockey JJ Slevin. The six-year-old finished fourth in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and is considered lightly raced and open to improvement. O’Brien’s stable has been in good form since Aintree.
King Of Answers is the second favourite at 6/1 for Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore, ridden by Derek Fox. The horse showed improved jumping when wearing cheekpieces at Cheltenham and is well-backed. Russell and Scudamore are a partnership that has won at the highest level in National Hunt racing and they understand big-field handicap chases.
Quebecois is 7/1 for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He finished third in the Cheltenham Ultima and is considered unexposed at marathon distances. Nicholls has two runners in the race — Isaac Des Obeaux also runs at 9/1 with Sam Twiston-Davies.
Road To Home is 15/2 for Willie Mullins, ridden by Patrick Mullins. The six-year-old finished second at the Cheltenham Festival, hitting the post in the Kim Muir. This is Mullins’ sole representative and connections will believe this trip and ground suits him.
Runners Worth Following
Chasingouttheblues (12/1) is locally trained by Mark Walford, with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle. The combination have strong form on soft Scottish ground and this horse has attracted each-way support at a price.
Promontory (20/1) for Sarah Joanna Connell, ridden by Donagh Meyler, is noted by several form analysts as a strong each-way contender. The horse won the Irish National previously, which is relevant form for a test of this nature.
Ask Brewster (11/1) for Mrs C Williams and jockey Shane Cotter is another who features at a mid-range price with credentials for the conditions.
Blaze The Way carries top weight of 12-0 (OR 145) for Margaret Mullins and Danny Mullins. He finished seventh in the Cheltenham Ultima and is the highest-rated runner in the field. Top weights face a stiff task in big-field National Hunt handicaps but the Mullins family will not have run him without thinking he has a chance.
The Outsider
Magna Sam (66/1) is the 12-year-old of the field, the oldest runner declared. He has had only two starts this season, his last nearly four months before Saturday. He would be the oldest winner of the Scottish National since Willsford in 1995 if he won. Longshots have won this race. He is a longshot.
Race Outlook
This is a genuinely open handicap. The combination of soft ground, four miles, and a full field of 21 creates unpredictability that goes beyond the form book. Horses who can jump fluently, settle in the early stages, and conserve energy for a long final circuit tend to do well here.
Kim Roque’s claims rest on potential rather than established form. King Of Answers and Quebecois offer more in terms of proven performance at this level. Road To Home and Chasingouttheblues deserve respect as each-way options.
This race can surprise. That is what makes it worth watching.
Race information sourced from official racecards (Racing Post, Sporting Life, Paddy Power News, Attheraces). Prices correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly — visit begambleaware.org.
No comment