Round 3 of the ATP Montreal draw takes place on Friday and the picture is now clear: for the first time since 1990, the Rogers Cup will not have a top-5 player in the quarter-finals.
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz were not in the draw at all. Zverev, the top seed, went out in the second round when Tallon Griekspoor beat him 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4. Medvedev, the fourth seed, followed after Botic van de Zandschulp pulled off the second significant upset of the week. Felix Auger-Aliassime, the home favourite and local crowd draw, withdrew before the tournament with a back injury.
What is left is one of the more open Masters 1000 draws in recent memory. And in an open draw, the defending champion starts with an advantage.
The Case for Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton won this title in 2025, beating Karen Khachanov in the final. He entered the 2026 edition ranked World No. 8 and in the kind of form that makes him a credible repeat candidate on any surface.
On Friday he faces Zizou Bergs. Bergs is a quality player who can move through a draw, but he is not the type to be backed as a short-priced favourite against a defending Masters champion on a hard court.
Shelton’s serve is among the most devastating in the game right now. On a fast hard court in Montreal, where the surface tends to play quick and reward big servers, that is a specific structural advantage. When the draw opens up like this, the player with the highest ceiling in a single set of matches tends to go deep.
The case against: Shelton has not won a second Masters title yet, and the mental weight of defending on a court where you have been before is a real factor. The surface suits him. The question is whether he executes.
Tallon Griekspoor: The Story of the Week
On Wednesday, Griekspoor beat Zverev, the World No. 2 and tournament top seed, 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4. It was not a fluke. Griekspoor won 20 forehand winners in the match and converted 17 of 18 net points. He earned the win through sustained quality across three sets.
On Friday he faces Matteo Arnaldi in Round 3. Arnaldi is a solid, improving Italian hard-court player. But Griekspoor is now the player carrying momentum through this draw. He came in ranked around world number 69. He is playing like someone ranked significantly higher than that.
If Griekspoor beats Arnaldi, he is in the quarter-finals of a Masters 1000 having already knocked out the top seed. That is a story worth following.
Ruud vs Fonseca
Casper Ruud against Joao Fonseca is arguably the most attractive match on the R3 schedule in terms of pure quality.
Ruud is a serial Grand Slam finalist with a complete game on all surfaces. He is consistent, strong from the baseline, and the kind of player who does not give free points on a shot-by-shot basis.
Fonseca, the young Brazilian, has been one of the most talked-about younger players in the game over the past twelve months. He hits the ball with pace and clarity that most players a decade older cannot consistently produce.
This is a genuine contest between an established top-10 quality player and someone who may be approaching that level faster than anyone predicted. It is the round-three match to watch.
Van de Zandschulp: Second Upset of the Draw
Botic van de Zandschulp eliminated Medvedev in Round 2. Medvedev, world No. 7 and fourth seed, was the second significant casualty of the draw after Zverev.
Van de Zandschulp now advances into Round 3 with an unexpected boost of confidence and ranking points. He has shown this week he can beat the top seeds on a hard court. The question for Friday is whether he can sustain that level through a third match in as many days.
What the Open Draw Means
This is the practical situation: the Rogers Cup quarter-final will not feature Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, Medvedev, or Auger-Aliassime. Five of the top six players are gone before the last eight.
That is not a statement about the quality of those remaining. Shelton, Griekspoor, Ruud, and Fonseca are all legitimate top-15 or top-20 quality players. But the absence of the expected market favourites changes the competitive landscape entirely.
The Masters 1000 points on offer in Montreal this week are going to a player who takes an open draw. The draw is as open as it has been at this event in over 30 years. Friday will tell us a lot about who is ready to claim it.
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