Understanding value is a huge element of betting which many punters do not really grasp.
Let us look at an Arbitrage opportunity that presented itself in the recent Champions league quarter finals.
Paddy Power was offering as a boost bet 5.0 (4/1) on the Arsenal /Bayern Munch double.
Now this will have attracted the many hundreds of matched bettors who will have backed £10 at Paddy Power and layed off on Betdaq at 4.80
Let us just break this down though.
If we look at the price for Arsenal to beat Real Madrid and Bayern Munich to beat Inter Milan, we can see that Betdaq were offering Arsenal at 2.13 and Bayern at 2.02.
So, to get the odds of this we multiply the 2.13 by 2.02 (2.13 x 2.02) and this equates to 4.30.
So, the odds of an Arsenal / Bayern Munich double are 4.30.
If we now look at the enhanced special being offered by Betdaq at the time it was 4.50 which was still higher than correct price of 4.30
Jonny Advised betting the double on Betdaq
Our Arbitrage expert Jonny Grossmark backed and advised backing the double on Betdaq at 4.80 as here we have identified value, and the reality is with the matched bettors backing at 5.0 with Paddy Power and Laying on Betdaq at 4.80 this price after this rush of activity was only going to go one way.
Jonny himself backed the double at 4.80 and came out at 4.60 which when equalling his profit amounted to a 4.35% return on Investment for a few minutes work.
Now this is a very good Return on Investment. However, this would go unnoticed by most as we live in a social media age where they are telling a completely unrealistic story of people winning thousands each day.
When you see a Tik Tok video of someone placing thousands on a horse at some high profile meeting you can almost guarantee they will be laying this money off on the exchanges.
Now if we look at the matched bettors it is a completely different scenario and mindset. Matched betting is even discussed on Mumsnet these days.
The majority of matched betting services are interested in is sending the clients the bet and then sending them to the exchange to lay off. The majority of the people laying the bet off have no idea how to calculate value and are going to Lay off on the exchanges at the best price available. In this arena this is not even considered as betting.
Many times, they do not lay off at the best available price as a “blocker” will have placed a large amount of money to lay at 4.70 thus pushing the Lay price out to 4.80.
Summary
In summary had the Matched bettors been educated in value betting, they would be backers rather than layers. However, this does come with a certain amount of risk attached. In some ways it is very difficult not to conform when told to lay at 4.80 and indeed for a short time Jonny was the market maker to the Arbers, confident that the odds would reduce. Indeed Paddy Power cut the price throughout the day from 4/1 (5.00) to 7/2 (4.50) and then finally to 10/3 (4.33) but, did offer substantial bet size.
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