At Trade on Sports we are very proud of our arbitrage service. Purely and simply because it is run by Jonny Grossmark who was one of the biggest Arbers in Europe 15/20 years ago.
Arbitrages are not 100% guaranteed and this is what separates Trade on Sports from other Arbitrage/Matched betting services in the fact that we look at every possible outcome.
Lets look at an example from yesterdays Premier League match where Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes was offered at Evens (2.00) by Betfair Sports, Paddy Power & Sky Bet to have at least One Shot on Target (SOT). Here customers where limited to £10 bets.Betdaq
Now Jonny spotted this arbitrage opportunity at 0115 in the morning where the price of Bruno Fernandes was 1.83 to have 1 SOT with the exchange firm SMarkets.
Indeed, later that day our friends at Betdaq were advising that Fernandes was value at 1.83 stating that they felt Fernandez should be priced around the 1.73 mark.
Admittedly when looking at the stats before the Nottingham Forest match Fernandes was averaging 0.86 shots on target in the Premier League this season and the stats can be found HERE.
Prop Bet Metrics
However, in our opinion we would look to tread very wary with these prop bets, as how do you price a bet like this up? What metrics do you take into consideration?
For example when I was discussing this arbirage with Jonny, Fernandes price had already drifted out to 1.85 and in an article form the previous Evenings Manchester Evening News there was speculation about his future at Old Trafford in an article that can be seen HERE
When looking at a prop bet like this there are so many metrics to take into consideration such as the following:
- Will Fernandes start the game?
- Will he get injured pre match or is he starting with an injury?
- Will he get substituted?
- What will Manchester Uniteds formation be and will there be positional changes for this game?
- Who will be playing upfront for Manchester United
Further questions need to be had like is he more likely to have a shot on target if the team are winning or losing.
We did a previous blog post on the Markov Chain and statistical models can help in deciding if a bet is value or not. However, it should always be remembered that every game Bruno Fernandes plays in is a completely independent event. Thus we conclude that these types of prop bets are difficult to price up.
No guarantees in arbitrage
If we get back to the arbitrage opportunity many arbing services will just give out the bet and send the customer to the exchange to lay off.
However, what happens if Bruno Fernandes does not start the game. Then you are down to the ruling of that Bookmaker or exchange. So you should always tread with caution.
At Trade on Sports we believe we offer way more than any other arbitrage service purely and simply because we are considering all angles. With our service it is not just a question of pointing the customer to the bookmakers offer and then to the exchange. We take a lot more into consideration.
As it turned out despite losing 1-0 to Nottingham forest Bruno Fernandez did indeed start the game and ended up having a couple of Shots on Target.
The Trade on Sports Matched Betting , Arbitrage Ratings & Bets Service is £14.95 Every 4 weeks and you can find out further information HERE
No comment